This Friday, January 23, in Rosny-sous-Bois, in the presence of presidents of major professional organizations in construction, promotion, transaction and management, alongside the president of the Social Union for Housing – which brings together all HLM organizations in France -, flanked by several ministers including that of the city and housing; the Prime Minister launched a major plan to revive residential production, with the ambitious objective of 2 million homes by 2030.
First, it is indeed a function of political speech to be what semiologists call “performative“. Clearly, through its power, it creates reality by encouraging actors to get involved. It catalyzes energies. From this point of view, and Sébastien Lecornu is not responsible for this, political speech no longer enjoys the credit it once had and all the polls reveal this. Trust in our public decision-makers is damaged and beyond telling us about love, our leaders must give us proof of love. Not to mention that in recent years a minister, a government has not benefited from the duration: Mr. Lecornu knows that he will in any case no longer be in his current position in 2030 (he could still be in charge, of course, and will work on it) and as a result those who follow him would have to endorse the same objectives.
In this regard, it is surprisingly legitimate to promise… The commitment to reach these production levels cannot be contradicted because the levels voluntarily planned are the right ones, shared by all. No political voice was raised to contradict or qualify the statement. Our country needs 400,000 more homes each year. However, we are starting from a production of the order of 270,000 in 2025barely more than half. Is an acceleration which corresponds to an almost doubling of the current speed realistic?
The government has just given proof, if not of love, at least of consideration for housing. They are insufficient, certainly, but real and strong. With 500 million moremainly obtained by reducing the annual levy due to the reduction in solidarity rent invented by Emmanuel Macron in 2017 (HLMs had to lower their rents to allow a correlated reduction in housing aid), social landlords will be able to build more, in this case 25% more. Their leader, Emmanuelle Cosse, considers the objective within reach. As for private developers, will they relaunch operations to sell collective housing to buyers, investors… and to HLM organizations (in their programs they are behind more than half of the construction of HLM housing)?
A new tax system that has some momentum
Yes, and they say it loud and clear: the new tax system, developed in recent months, requested for years by the sector, has just been included in the finance law passed with the forceps of 49.3. It creates the possibility for a household that acquires new housing to rent it, for at least 9 years, to depreciate it, that is to say, to reduce their property income by part of the value of the property. The rates used are 3.5% per year if the rent is intermediate, 4.5% if the rent is social And 5.5% if he is very social. In addition, the land deficit if one is noted can reduce the basis of the taxpayer’s overall income.
The mechanism has momentum and will awaken investor vocations. For generations of tax cuts, threatened each year by Bercy, it replaces a undeniable economic logicwhich has established itself in the world of businesses, the depreciation of assets used in the operation of the activity. The investor is recognized as a producer of housing services, far from the rentier stigmatized by the President of the Republic in all his speeches for eight years. We can reasonably count on 40,000 to 50,000 more homes per year for rental purposes. Above all, these investors constitute, in a way, the basis for the promoters which allows them to display a sufficient pre-commercialization rate to reassure the bankers, so that they finance the promotion operations.
Incidentally, and this has already started, the marketing of the measure will be noisy. The promoters know how to do it: we can bet that public opinion will very quickly become widely aware of the benefits of the Jeanbrun system… without the State having to spend a euro to promote it in the media!
Necessary corrections
Two regrets, and it will be up to Sébastien Lecornu, as soon as possible, to correct these defects: the accommodation purchased and placed under this regime must not accommodate ascending or descending tenantsand the new detached house is excluded of the device. Double ideological absurdity. Why couldn’t an investing household accommodate a parent, who will pay the same rent anyway? Why is the rental house, which corresponds to a demand identified in the outskirts of metropolises and in rural areas, not eligible?
Finally, the Prime Minister is good: he promises at a time when voters will renew their mayors or entrust their current mayor with one more mandate. We know that before the electoral deadlines, elected officials calm things down and slow down or freeze the building permits – of which they are masters -, so as not to disturb the population, and relax after their election.
In short, the alignment of planets is there. It remains that exogenous causes could distort the situation. There trust will it be sufficient in our country for the French to invest? THE geopolitical fears will they be put aside when making a rental investment? THE interest rateeven if the interest is tax deductible, will it not increase, in particular because the markets will find our budget incapable of sufficiently reducing our public deficit? However, investors must also present a balanced equation between their income and monthly payments: an increase in these repayments risks compromising projects, which lenders will not support.
THE reasons to believe in it are indisputable. We have reason to want to want to, to quote the French favorite rocker again. Hey, by the way, are the stars going to use the device? Without a doubt! Speaking of image and communication, we will approve of the Minister of Cities and Housing giving his name to this depreciation: he defended it and his contribution counted a lot.
We will nevertheless have a thought full of gratitude for Valérie Létard, her predecessor, and François Bayrou, then at Matignon, for the deputies and senators who fought and had written the scenario in the different versions of the draft budget which were not ultimately voted on, so that the child was born. For all of these, the French will, hopefully, have to struggle less to find a rental.
