We should not be fooled by the anger of the left in reaction to the nomination of Michel Barnier to Matignon (“a stolen election”, for Jean-Luc Mélenchon; “a crisis of the regime” for Olivier Faure). Did it really want to see even part of its ideas implemented by a government?
The choice of an unknown, Lucie Castets, as candidate for Prime Minister was a first clue. Her nomination would have meant a return to the party system. During the three cohabitations since 1958, it was the leader of the victorious camp or a strong personality who had taken on the role: Jacques Chirac, Edouard Balladur and Lionel Jospin.
Confirmation came this week with the refusal to reap the potential but real benefits for the left that the nomination of Bernard Cazeneuve would have allowed. This would have constituted a “form of anomaly”, the PS boss kindly rewarded him, promising censure. Exit Cazeneuve. Too greedy, the NFP played, it lost.
The consequence of this attitude, combined with an Emmanuel Macron who wanted to keep his hand on the handle, is a great discontent of the voters of the left. Quite understandable: the choice of a leader from the ranks of a party that came in 5th position instead of another from the first alliance of the Assembly is incongruous. But whose fault is it?
Michel Barnier is a more than honorable personality. Experienced, serious, honest, he has a long career behind him that has left real traces: the Albertville Olympics in 1992, an ecological assessment in Savoie, a real conviction on the environment (his first book) and European achievements (financial markets and Brexit negotiation).
Although he is sometimes considered “smooth”, one quality he is recognized for is his ability to unite and lead his teams. The current Director of the Treasury at the Ministry of Economy and Finance, Bertrand Dumont, worked alongside him for four years in Brussels. Obviously, his government experience is a bit dated: it goes back to the Sarkozy five-year term!
The only question that matters: will Michel Barnier be able to pass his Budget in the Assembly? With the censure of the left being certain, the RN will have a key role – which may displease, but is logical with 126 elected representatives. Will Marine Le Pen, who will demand a reduction in VAT on everyday products, be granted her wish? If not, will she join in a censure of the NFP?
The most reasonable bet is that it won’t work beyond a few weeks. However, we must hope for the opposite, a little calm after the total madness of the last few weeks. But there “will be changes and ruptures” and “finally” listening, promises Michel Barnier. Stones, of course, in Emmanuel Macron’s Elysée garden.
On the substance, the new Prime Minister spoke on Thursday evening about “controlling immigration”, “everyday security”, “financial and climate debt” and “the standard of living of the French”, which is both free and ticks a lot of boxes. If he wants to stay at Matignon, this recognized deal maker will have to make compromises, including to the detriment of what has been done – and not done – in recent years.
