Politics sometimes feels like a farce. Will France be without a full-fledged Prime Minister for fifty days? Every day that passes, a white smoke is announced, before being postponed until the next day. If the taste were for jokes, we would be glad that there is at least one declared candidate: the incomparable Ségolène Royal…
No one will deny that the situation is serious and complex. There was a time, the ordinary time of the Ve Republic, where we expected the majority parties to support the tenant of Matignon and come to strengthen his government. There was also support without participation. Now, we are only hoping that the parties will not censor him!
Improving purchasing power…
Politicians, all busy prolonging the enchanted parenthesis of the Olympic Games in the public eye, should take the time to take a look at the economic situation. Which is more fragile than they think. All those who focus only on the “distribution of wealth” should not forget that it must first be produced.
Behind the good news of inflation falling below 1.9% in annual terms in August, two orange lights came on Friday. On prices, there is no point in being too happy: this is a success for the European Central Bank and the energy shield policies put in place. Purchasing power will finally improve.
…and decline in salaried employment
But INSEE also announced that salaried employment fell by 28,500 jobs in the private sector in the second quarter. This is a signal that should not be ignored. Such a strong reversal of the trend had not occurred since the health crisis, after a long, spectacular period of job creation. Today, only public employment is increasing.
The second indicator is more discreet: it is the profit margin rate of companies. “It is falling sharply,” writes INSEE soberly regarding non-financial companies. At the end of March, it stood at 30.8%, compared to 33% last year. This is a return to the medium-term trend for a decade. In short, there are hardly any super profits except in the public debate.
Political uncertainty, economic uncertainty: the picture calls for tact in economic policy, and certainly not sudden swerves. There is no miracle solution, no magic money, there is only work, investment, innovation and improving productivity… The economy cannot afford for the supply-side policy pursued for exactly ten years (2014-2024) to have been nothing more than a parenthesis.
