Don Stefano Caprio, professor of Russian history and culture at the Pontifical Eastern Institute of Rome
After the violation of both the parts of the 30 -hour truce agreed between Russia and Ukraine on the eve of Easter, the conflict returns to animate the international debate with the announcement of the Russian president Vladimir Putin of a “ceasefire” of three days, from 7 to 10 May. Kyiv asks that he is prolonged for a whole month, collecting the support of the White House, according to the words of the spokesman Karoline Leavitte: “Trump wants permanent peace”. But behind this move of the “Tsar” There would seem to be anything else.
«On the one hand, this truce is particularly significant because on May 9, being the 80th anniversary of the Russian victory in the Second World War, Putin wants to celebrate it to the fullest of solemnity; on the other, together with the memory of the victory over Nazism, it also wants to celebrate the triumph in Ukraine, given that, among its objectives, there has always been the “denial” of Ukraine. More than peace, Putin intends to declare victory, “he explains Don Stefano Caprioprofessor of Russian history and culture at the Pontifical Eastern Institute of Rome. «For now he doesn’t have much to boast about. The only concrete thing he can obtain is the Recognition of the annexation of Crimea, as well as some guarantee on Donbas. It’s all part of the typical Soviet strategy: lengthening the times for negotiations as much as possible to put the economy back, especially military supplies ».
Donbas and Crimea have always been among Putin’s main objectives, despite the large -scale invasion. It will however be the winner, if they were to go through both …
«Yes, for him it will be like a victory, but the real goal of the war in Ukraine was that of split the world. Create a division so that, from a globalization dominated by the West, we moved on to a “tripolar” vision, with Russia in the midst of bridge with China. This is what he considers his true victory ».
And the European Union where is placed in this scenario?
«He must decide. As long as he was in the trailer of the United States, as it has always happened, everything was easier. Now, however, Washington is much closer to Moscow and, consequently, the EU has to take a position still to be discovered. He must find a unit inside, but it is not easy: there are Filoputinian countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, and others fiercely adverse to Russia, I think of Macron’s France “.
“Vox populi, vox dei“The Latins said. What is the opinion of Russian citizens on the conflict?
“There vox populi It has been tacited in a truly violent way, with a Stalinist repression. There are no opponents of Putin and, if they exist, they are either in jail, or abroad. Even the priests, the most open, ecumenical, lively ones, have all been suspended, reduced to the secular state, or driven out of the country. The rest of the population accepts all this a bit for patriotic conformism, a little for fear, avoiding to contrast ».
And that of the so -called “apparatus”? For men close to Putin it must be even more difficult to distance himself …
«Nobody distances himself, because it is no longer thoughtable. It is a total dictatorship. There is only one figure that makes a little to counterbly ».
Would be?
«The president of the central bank of the Russian Federation, El’vira Nabiullina. It is a more “technical” counterbalance, if we want, but in any case it has been a year that has not lowered the interest rates, continuing to warn that even by raising them it is not possible to drop the inflation, and therefore you still risk a crisis. Then there are the oligarchs who, on the other hand, try in every way to support Putin doing business with weapons, or playing on oil prices ».
In this recessive spiral, were the penalties inflicted on Russia?
«They have certainly had a great weight, but so far have been deceived in every waythanks to the bank provided by China and other Central Asia countries. The crisis derives from the fact that all internal production is intended for military uses and, in this way, it is no longer possible to carry on that of wide consumption genres, which begin to scarce. Especially in the suburbs. Large cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, on the other hand, continue to be financed, because they remain “showcases” ».
We come to Patriarch Kirill.
“He hasn’t stood at all, he continues to support Putin. Every now and then it makes some speech to claim the role of main ideologue, inspirer of the “Tsar”; speaks of patriotism, of the sacredness of Russia, as if he were the leader. It was at the beginning of the Putinian era, now no longer ».
In his messages in Fatima, in 1917, the Virgin said to the three shepherds: “The Holy Father will consecrate me Russia, which will be converted, and a period of peace will be granted to the world”.
«The prophecy of Fatima, linked to the consecration of Russia to the Immaculate Heart of Mary, is a thing linked to the last century, based on the religious rebirth of the country. Today, this rebirth has taken on a more ideological character. As a result, religious rebirth had to be adapted to state conformism. In church there is the 2-3% of the populationno more ».
On May 7, he will not only mark the temporary truce between Russia and Ukraine, but also the beginning of the conclave. What do you expect?
“The line of Ostpolitik Di Francesco. With this in mind, the main candidates are certainly the cardinals Parolin and Zuppi. It will be interesting to see how the votes of American purple, which have different positions and represent the most significant geopolitical force will affect. The Church has always taken into account geopolitics, because it is the only universal reality. Also the Cardinal TaglePhilippine of Chinese mother, can be very effective in the scenario that is outlining himself ».
