Real estate credit: after the BCE decision, will rates really continue to drop?

The European Central Bank once again fell its guiding rates this Thursday, January 30. But, unlike 2024, it is not certain that mortgage rates continue to lower in the wake of the BCE’s decision.

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Loïc Cantinthe president of the National Federation of Real Estate (FNAIM), is formal: even more than the drop in pricesthese are the Four drops in guiding rates of the European Central Bank (ECB), in 2024, in a context of a strong slowdown in inflation, which are behind the gradual recovery of real estate purchases for a few months, after two and a half years of crisis. Banks, which are partially financed from the ECB, have indeed passed on the drop in its guiding rates on their mortgage rates. After quadrupled between early 2022 and late 2023, the latter fell from more than one point last year, to fall in January 2025 to 3.30%, on average, for credits over 20 years.

The new drop in the rates of the ECB, a quarter of a point, this Thursday, January 30, could therefore be the prelude to a next drop in mortgage rates. Except that the rate scales for February that banks are preparing to send to brokers could show Some increases, for the first time in 14 months. “There are rumors of mortgage mortgage increases for February, we did not expect it”testifies to Capital Sandrine ALLONIER, spokesperson for Vousfinancer.

Raix lifts linked to the level of the OAT at 10 years

A rumor confirmed by a large national bank, which falls under its mortgage rates of 0.17 points In February, Sandrine Allonier indicates. Maël Bernier, Director of Bestaux Communication, also quotes this case. “At the end of January, we received very few rate scales from banks, which shows that discussions must be tense between their financial services, which no doubt advise them to start raising their rates, and their services salesperson, who prefer a pursuit of the decline, in order to meet their recruitment objectives of new customers for the coming months ”deciphers Maël Bernier.

For the bestal spokesperson, The drop in the rates of the ECB on Thursday “Don’t change the face of the world»»in this context of initiating the rise in mortgage rates of certain banks. “Banks are in reality very little funded to the ECB, but rather in the financial markets”, she explains. However, on the markets, the 10 -year OAT (assimilable bond of the Treasury), which corresponds to the rate of remuneration required by international investors to lend to France, has climbed since the start of the year, at 3.30% currently , Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his protectionist measures raising fears of an inflation resurgence. Their borrowing rates on the increased markets, banks logically affect this increase on the mortgage rates they grant to borrowers, in order to preserve their profitability.

Rate increases for borrowers least endowed with savings?

Maël Bernier returns to the case of the Grande Banque Nationale which announced to brokers an increase of 0.17 point of its mortgage rates for February: “It justifies it precisely by increasing its financing costs due to the increase in the OAT to 10 years.»» Sandrine Allonier, for her part, does not exclude that the banks are starting to raise their rates due to the unemployment increasewhich increases the risks of difficulty in reimbursement of real estate credits.

However, “We are only in January and banks have important commercial objectives to fulfill for the year”, With this call product that is mortgage, recalls Maël Bernier. Banks could therefore circumscribe their rate lifts to the least endowed to savings borrowersand offer stable rates to the best profiles. SG launches a loan to a rate of only 2.99% For the purchase of a main, secondary or rental investment, for a period of 11 to 20 years and a maximum amount of 500,000 euros, in order to “Conquer a new clientele”. Rate lifts should also remain “Low” In February, adding the monthly repayment monthly payments of only fifteen euros, prognostic Sandrine Allonier. And only banks with the lowest rates, for example at 3.15 or 3.20% over 20 years, should raise their rates, adds Maël Bernier.