Wait or take the plunge? For several months, this has been the dilemma of future owners, attentive to the slightest movement in credit rates. Rightly so: a few tenths of a point can weigh heavily in a purchasing project.
Since the peaks of 2023, rates have fallen significantly. In December 2025, with a average rate of 3.35% over 20 yearsa couple capable of repay 1,500 euros per month can borrow 262,109 euros, compared to only 241,195 euros (rate at 4.30%) in December 2023, calculated the broker Vousfinancer. Either 21,000 euros differencefar from being anecdotal.
Another calculation: if this couple wishes to borrow today 300,000 euros over 20 yearshe will have to repay 1,717 euros per month, compared to 1,866 euros two years ago. Either 150 euros monthly savings. And he must also have a monthly net income of 5,203 euros, compared to 5,654 euros at the end of 2023.
Should we take advantage of the current window or wait a little longer, at the risk of seeing our borrowing capacity reduced if rates start to rise again? To see more clearly, Capital asked Finance you simulations on the evolution of rates between now and March 2026.
No further drop in credit rates in sight
From the outset, there is no point in hoping for a return of rates to 1% or 2% for the years 2020-2021. Those days are over. “The scenario of a further reduction should be ruled out, rates will no longer fall», warns Sandrine Allonier, spokesperson for Finance you. The reason is the recent rise in borrowing rates from the French State, which increases the cost of financing for banks, and the key rates of the European Central Bank, which are expected to remain stable. Two parameters which limit any further relaxation on real estate loans.
Three trajectories are emerging for spring 2026. First scenario : almost stable rates around 3.40%. “To achieve their commercial objectives, banks will maintain attractive rates in 2026», predicts Sandrine Allonier. At this level, with 1,500 euros per month, the couple could still borrow around 261,000 euros. For a loan of 300,000 euros, the monthly payment would reach 1,725 euros, which assumes a monthly net salary of 5,226 euros.
Second hypothesis : a moderate increase to 3.50%. With a monthly payment of 1,500 euros, our couple could still borrow 258,639 euros. For a loan of 300,000 euros, the monthly payment would increase to 1,740 euros, or only 15 euros more per month.
Third scenariomore unfavorable: a rise to 3.60%. With a monthly payment of 1,500 euros, this couple could only borrow 256,361 euros. For 300,000 euros, the monthly payment would then reach 1,755 euros, or 40 euros more each month and a net monthly income of at least 5,319 euros. Some households may have to adjust their plans, but only marginally.
More favorable conditions than in 2023
In all cases, conditions would remain more favorable than in 2023, especially as real estate prices have retreated in many cities and wages have increased. In 2026, banks should also renew their subsidized rates for certain profiles or projects. “Enough to compensate for a slight increase in rates», Estimates Sandrine Allonier.
Barring a major political or geopolitical shock, the start of 2026 is therefore expected rather conducive to real estate purchase. No point waiting for a hypothetical drop that won’t happen.
