Real estate credit: good news for borrowers, rates fall again in November

Real estate loan rates continue to fall in November. They are down by around 0.10 points.

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How far will mortgage rates fall? In the wake of monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB), rates charged by banks fell in November. “We see a drop of 0.10 points (compared to October) according to the first data we have received”explains Sandrine Allonier, spokesperson for the broker Vousfinancer. The trend should be confirmed in the coming days, once the banks’ scales have all been communicated.

Rates have now fallen below their level 18 months ago. Over 20 years, the term most taken out by households, a loan is negotiated at a rate between 3.35% and 3.80%, with an average of 3.45%. Over 15 and 25 years, the rates are respectively 3.30 and 3.6% on average. As a reminder, between 2022 and 2023, average rates rose from 1 to 4%, considerably straining the borrowing capacity of households.

Rates at 3.2% by the end of 2024

Since then, the ECB has made a monetary shift by lowering its deposit rate three times, from 4% to 3.25%. Banks are therefore encouraged to lend rather than place their money with the European Central Bank. And therefore to offer more competitive rates to stand out from the crowd: “All banks are now in the phase of winning over customers”confirms Maël Bernier, spokesperson for Meilleurtaux.

But banks also rely on another indicator to establish their rate scale: bonds comparable to the Treasury (OAT) of the French State. The yield on French debt over 10 years rose to 3.08%, the same level as last July. Under these conditions, it will be very difficult for banks to offer average rates below this threshold by January 2025. The Crédit Logement CSA observatory, like Meilleurtaux, is banking on a landing of 3.20% by end of the year.