In 2026, real estate credit will no longer be the ultra-profitable product it once was. In five years, the average rate has increased from around 1% to more than 3%. Margins have tightened, regulations have tightened and production has slowed. However, banks continue to use it as their commercial showcase.
A real estate loan often represents twenty years of banking relationship, a massive loyalty lever. For the lending institution, it is an opportunity to sustainably anchor the customer relationship. Financing is then part of a broader ecosystem: domiciliation of income, insurance, savings and complementary banking services.
Profitability is not limited to the loan rate, but the entire relationship. In a context where customer acquisition is expensive, real estate credit remains the most structuring acquisition tool.
Attract the strongest profiles
Even with profitability compressed by the cost of refinancing and competition, it makes it possible to secure recurring income and strengthen market shares. It is this logic which explains why, in 2026, banks continue to offer attractive conditions to profiles deemed solid.
After the surge of 2022-2024, the market experienced a calm phase before seeing rates gradually start to rise again since the start of the 2025 school year. Average rates over 20 years are now hovering around 3.2% to 3.4%, in a less favorable context than last spring. “After stabilizing in spring 2025, rates started to rise again in September», notes the Observatoire Crédit Logement/CSA, which puts the average rate at 3.20% in January 2026.
Targeted adjustments in a bullish context
Although certain large banks have recently made adjustments to their scales, of the order of 0.10 to 0.25 points depending on the profile, these movements nevertheless remain limited. Faced with the rise in bond rates, institutions are choosing between margins and borrowers’ solvency. Other elements also play a role, such as the desire to capture spring projects and the need to regain market share after two years of sluggish production.
Could other banks follow? Adjustments remain possible. The Crédit Logement/CSA Observatory also estimates that possible reductions could be “punctual» in order to support demand. In an environment marked by the gradual rise in rates and refinancing costs, these movements should however remain targeted at the strongest profiles.
In 2026, the battle will no longer be fought over floor rates, but over the ability of banks to attract the most profitable profiles. The rate war has not disappeared: it has become finer, more segmented and inseparable from a logic of global conquest.
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