Not a vote against Europe, but a vote against the internal system. The fact is that the victory in the first round in the presidential elections of the candidate of the ultra -right, George Simion risks becoming a thorn in the side for the EU and beyond. The last word will always be up to the voters and will be next May 18th. But it is possible to make an analysis of this first round, starting from an incontrovertible data: the sentence of the Constitutional Court which invalidated the first round of the elections last December and declared the candidate Filorusso inaccurate, Călin Georgescu, has certainly not turned off the desire for nationalism and sovereignty in the country.
Looking at the response that came out of the ballot box, in addition to 40.5% of Simion, which is the undisputed winner of this first round, it is appropriate to make a reflection on the renovated 18.20% of Crin Antonescu. Romanians did not take well that the government coalition, made up of liberals and social democrats, has decided to nominate a 65 -year -old figure of the old policy and above all an expression of a majority that is accused, inside and outside the country, of not having thought of the needs of the population. To see it all, he did not even do so, in the sense that during his election campaign he did not speak of the structural problems that afflict the economy, preferring a nationalist and populist rhetoric, made of concessions of electoral ‘tips’ and incendiary messages against the European Union and favor of national identity.
A modus operandi that we have already seen in many countries in the area and that seems to bring results, at least in the short term. In this context, the vote of the Romanians abroad should also be read, which, with the exceptions of Canada and the United States, was almost completely in favor of Simion. It is a real anti-establishment vote, which is understood even better if we consider that, starting from the fall of Nicolae Ceauęscu, the power has been detained practically always by liberals and social democrats. This also contributes to explaining the good affirmation of the mayor of Bucharest, Nicuōor Dan, who collected 20.9% of the consents and therefore will be the second challenger on May 18th.
Returning to Simion, he was also able to count on another ally which is an important actor in national balances: the Romanian Orthodox Church. It should be considered that for the far -right leader being Romanian means being an Orthodox Christian. An approach that is very welcome to the patriarchate of Bucharest, who, like many ‘colleagues’ must deal with a strongly weakened birth rate, faithful and more and more and more and more full, even in a devoted country such as Romania, where the largest Orthodox cathedral is located in the world, entirely financed with public money and donations of the faithful. The voters will decide the result. According to analysts, two factors will be decisive. The first is represented by the true surprise of these elections, namely Victor Ponta, a former democratic social premier bewitched by the sirens of sovereignty, which alone has reached 12.8% of respectable. Then there is the doubtful turnout. During this first round it was quite high, but with an important middle bridge. If in the next round he should get up, they could be voted in favor of Dan, considering the fact that Simion’s electorate is more motivated.
