The prof. Aldo Giannuli, 72 years old
The Ligurian elections of 27 and 28 October saw the coalition of the so-called “progressive camp”, led by former minister Andrea Orlando, come close to victory against a much more compact centre-right led by the mayor of Genoa, Marco Bucci. Among Orlando’s supporters, as is known, there was also the 5 Star Movement, which garnered just 4.56% of the votes, torn apart by the feud between the current leader Giuseppe Conte and the founder Beppe Grillo. The famous comedian to underline his opposition to the positions taken by the former prime minister he even opted to abstain. «As the creator of the Movement, I claim its right to extinction» he had declared a few hours before the vote. Now the members await the last phase of the Constituent Assembly promoted by Conte, which will be held on 23 and 24 November. However, the controversy does not subside. «The 5 Stars in Liguria have suffered a decidedly significant erosion of consensus. In that region Grillo has always had a strong influence, he had made it clear in every way that he would not go to vote and in fact that was the case. Many of the potential voters have certainly followed his example”, explains the professor. Aldo Giannulipolitical scientist (the latest essay is recently in bookstores, it is entitled “Geopolitics. Understanding the new world order”, published by Ponte alle Grazie, director of the “Globalization Observatory” study center as well as a profound expert on the Movement founded by the Ligurian comedian. « However, this crisis of theirs has been going on for several years now. Let’s forget about the European elections of five years ago: from 32% in the 2018 political elections, in just one year, the 5 Stars went to 17%.
And the balance of power with the League, with which they were allied, changed, which did the reverse process, jumping from 17% to 34%.
“Exactly. But the most interesting thing then was that, in terms of absolute votes, the 5 Stars lost 60% of the electorate compared to the policies. A catastrophe. Not to mention, in fact, the alliance with the League.”
In your opinion, did the trouble begin there?
«First of all, that was a marriage of interests in clear contrast with the inspiring principles of the Movement, which had grown from the perspective of: “We will never ally ourselves with anyone”. And instead they ended up with the force furthest from them, Salvini took the lion’s share and ate them up. That Government, however, launched the citizen’s income: here is the biggest mistake. When, still in the previous legislature (2013-2018, ed.) began to wave that flag, I said to Casaleggio: “This idea of dividing income from work is an imbecile idea, it can’t work.” He, however, fell in love with her, but I think that now even he would change his mind.”
Speaking of Casaleggio, what is left of that Movement?
«Nothing, I would say. Look, I know Grillo well and I’m very fond of him, but he’s always been just one frontman. The true political mastermind was Casaleggio, in fact the decline of the Movement began with the death of Gianroberto. I don’t think Beppe wants to return to leading the 5 Stars, he knows he isn’t capable because it’s not his job. A new figure would be needed. The only person who could “maintain” rather than “restore” the consensus at the moment is the former mayor of Turin, Chiara Appendino. Excluding the affair in Piazza San Carlo, the night of the final of Champions League of 2017, did not have the problems of Raggi: he governed well and still has his following in Piedmont.”
But the Movement has a leader: Giuseppe Conte.
«Yes, but he was never from the Movement. He is completely foreign to that culture and has pursued a policy that has nothing to do with the 5 Stars. The Original Movement held online consultations more or less every month: how many have they held since Conte became leader? One or two, maybe? If this continues, in the next elections they will not reach 5% and will stay out of Parliament.”
However, in the last elections with Conte the Movement took 17%, recovering many of the consensus lost during the experience of the Draghi Government.
«True, but at the last European elections last June I had predicted a single-digit result and in fact they stopped below 10%. At the last elections, many hoped for a recovery, but the percentage obtained in Liguria tells us that even the hard core of voters is now melting away. As I said, we need a new figure supported by Grillo and perhaps also by some first wave parliamentarians.”
For example Di Battista?
«I am a very good friend of Alessandro, I love him, but he lost his chance a few years ago: when they call you for a collection and you don’t show up, your credibility is zero. Another big problem is in the ruling class. Do you remember how the candidates were chosen at the beginning?
With the primaries online.
«Yes, but between whom? They were all people who had presented themselves on their lists for the administrative elections without being elected. They were not only unknown, but also rejected by voters. Someone managed to emerge from anonymity, like Di Battista, Taverna, Villarosa… Look at the parliamentarians of now, however. Do you remember any proposals or strong statements? I don’t even remember who the group leaders are, of course.”
In this identity crisis that you describe, how much impact did the choice to enter the “wide field” of the center-left have?
«It is an alliance that is based on the absolute inability of political thought of those who created it. As a Sicilian proverb says, it is nothing mixed with nothing. It only worked in Sardinia, with the victory of the 5 Star candidate, Alessandra Todde, because she was a new figure and there, the two electorates had an interest in renewing local politics. At the national level, they only argue about the division, never once about the programs.”
Professor, you are in the library with Geopolitics. Understanding the new world order. After the result of the US elections, what is the world order on the horizon?
«I think there will be an attempt by Trump to establish a sort of global “triumvirate” made up of Washington, Moscow and Tel Aviv. Putin, however, wants to return to his original plan which was to disengage from the Chinese and return to being the balance between Beijing and the USA, to have more power in the negotiations. He wants to avoid being totally dependent on one or the other party. We’ll see if he can put this plan into action.”
