The sentence had the effect of a bomb. “If this is the condition for the stability of the country, we must examine the modalities and concrete consequences of a suspension” of pension reform, released by Elisabeth Borne in the columns of Parisian Tuesday October 7. The resigning Minister of National Education and former Prime Minister, who carried this oh-so-controversial reform against all odds during her 20 months at Matignon, appears today open to coming back to this text. A reform whose main measure – much criticized – aims to raise the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 years. A progressive increase already underway since September 1, 2023, the legal age then rising to 62 years and 3 months for people born between September 1 and December 31, 1961, before climbing to 62 years and 6 months for the 1962 generation, to 62 years and 9 months for future retirees born in 1963 then to 63 years for the 1964 cohort.
However, the limit of 63 years would logically be the one retained in the event of suspension of the pension reform, which has therefore been placed at the heart of the negotiations with a hypothetical aim of parliamentary consensus on the vote on France’s budget for 2026. The cost of such a concession granted to the left and the unions is known. “Hundreds of millions in 2026 and billions in 2027”said the new (and resigned) Minister of the Economy Roland Lescure. More precisely, “a suspension of the increase in the legal retirement age to 63 would cost 500 million euros in 2026, 3 billion euros in 2027 and 5.8 billion euros in 2035”recalls Bruno Chrétien, the president of the Social Protection Institute (IPS), based on the projections made by the Court of Auditors last February, before the launch of the unsuccessful “conclave” on pensions. And the figure of 5.8 billion euros only concerns the retirement system, the note rising to 13 billion euros in 2035 by looking at the total cost of a suspension for public finances (in tax revenue in particular), according to the Wise Men.
Abolishing pension reform would cost much more
The bill could be even higher for certain workers, warns Bruno Chrétien, who would see this pause “a totally irresponsible decision”. “The savings generated by the reform must, for example, make it possible to improve the situation of women (calculation of pensions over the best 23 or 24 years salary among others, Editor’s note). If we suspend the reform, there will no longer be the means to implement these measures or we will have to “scrape” money elsewhere.”
And certain voices, like that of Sophie Binet at the CGT, continue to be raised to go further, and simply remove the main measure of pension reform by returning to a legal retirement age of 62. Gold, “the increase in the legal age essentially accounts for the savings of the reform”warns the economist. Gains of around 10.3 billion euros in 2025 (6.2 billion once support measures are deducted, such as raising the minimum pension or strengthening the long careers system), and which must peak at 17 billion euros (11.8 billion net of support measures) in 2030, figures Bruno Chrétien.
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