How will the real estate loan market evolve over the next 12 months? It will largely depend on the trajectory of interest rates and for the moment, the signals are converging towards a moderate increase. After having settled around 3% to 3.2% at the end of 2025 over 20 years, the scales could evolve towards 3.3% to 3.4%, in a less buoyant economic context and a still prudent monetary policy. A contained progression, which would however remain well below the levels observed before 2020.
This rise in rates would still lead to a slight erosion of borrowing capacity. An increase of 0.3 points thus reduces the real estate budget by around 3% to 5%, depending on the duration of the loan. The impact is therefore real, but still absorbable for households with a personal contribution and a stable financial situation.
A key element explains this sensitivity: banks do not set their rates at random. For fixed rate loans, they are based on the cost of money, itself influenced by the key rates of the European Central Bank and by long-term market rates, in particular the yield on ten-year French government bonds (10-year OAT). When these references progress, the real estate scales follow.
Banks still active, but more selective
In 2026, banking establishments should remain present in the real estate loan market, without returning to the very favorable conditions of before 2022. The granting framework remains strict, with in particular a debt rate capped at 35%, that is to say that the total monthly loan payments cannot exceed a little more than a third of the net household income. The stability of income and the solidity of files remain determining criteria, in accordance with the guidelines of the Banque de France.
If conditions tend to get tougher, competition continues to play a role. Good news in particular, some banks are extending subsidized rate offers, offered below standard scales, generally for targeted profiles: first-time buyers, households with stable incomes or files deemed low risk. However, these systems remain limited in time and subject to specific criteria, such as the domiciliation of income.
Ultimately, banks should remain lending in 2026, but within a more normalized framework. The market does not seem ready to return to the exceptionally low rates of past years. However, real estate credit remains a strategic appeal product for banks, used to capture or retain customers over the long term, despite margins under pressure.
In this context, expecting a return to extraordinary financing conditions appears less and less realistic: so if you have a real estate purchase project, don’t wait too long to get started.
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