For several weeks, gold has been going around in circles. The yellow metal alternates between a slight rise and a slight fall, without visibly managing to choose a direction. “Gold remains prisoner of a wide range between $3,950 and $4,200as investors weigh the inflationary impact of rising energy prices against long-term risks to economic growth »analyzes Ole Hansen, head of raw materials strategy at Saxo Bank.
This blockage is not trivial: it reveals a real dilemma for investors. On the one hand, the surge in oil fuels inflation fearswhich traditionally pushes bond rates upwards and weighs on gold (since it does not pay any dividend, it becomes less attractive). But on the other, a prolonged energy shock would ultimately slow down growtha scenario which would restore gold to its role of safe haven.
Gold yo-yos
On July 14, the June 2026 US Inflation Report (CPI) showed a much greater slowdown in US inflation than expected. Enough to briefly propel the price of gold above $4,100: traders have greatly lowered their expectations for the rate increase: the probability of an increase in July has fallen from around 35% to only 10%. But this rebound did not last.
The rise in oil prices, combined with new American strikes against Iran in recent weeks, has revived fears of higher energy prices likely to revive inflation, and therefore the risk of a stricter monetary policy. The price of Brent crude crossed $95 a barrel, and the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds rose to its highest level in more than a year, a classic sign of tension in rate expectations.
A beginning of decorrelation with oil
Ole Hansen also notes that gold held up rather well despite this rise in oil prices. “Resistance around $4,000 shows investors are less inclined to sell aggressively in the face of new inflation fears”he notes. It is still too early to say that the usual inverse relationship between oil and gold has broken down, but such a scenario would become clearer if growth were to suffer more than inflation.
Statements by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to Congress have not removed this uncertainty. He assured parliamentarians that “If we pursue the right policies, the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past” ; without giving any clue as to the timetable for his next decision. without giving any clue as to the timetable for his next decision. Precious metals therefore remain very sensitive to upcoming publications on inflation and developments in the energy markets.
What future for gold?
So, the liquidations seem to be coming to an end. “The wave of investor liquidations appears to have largely reached its endETF positions stabilizing, while continued central bank purchases provide important underlying support”specifies Ole Hansen. In other words, the phase of aggressive sales seems to be behind us… but without having given way to massive purchases. Over one year, gold remains up 20%, despite a decline of 7.2% since the start of the year.
For the Saxo Banque expert, two scenarios are now taking shape. A sustained move above $4,200 would signal that investors are now looking beyond inflation, to focus on the broader economic consequences of a prolonged energy shock. Conversely, a fall below $3,950 would indicate that inflationary fears, rising bond yields and a strengthening dollar have regained control of the gold market.
