Bitcoin: the $100,000 mark crossed by the end of the year? Expert opinions

Boosted by the election of Donald Trump, Bitcoin is approaching the symbolic threshold of $100,000. But can it be crossed by the end of 2024? We asked our experts.

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For Bitcoin, the symbolic peak of $100,000 seems more than ever on the horizon. Since the election of Donald Trump to the White House on November 5, the most famous cryptocurrency has seen its value increase by 35%, going from 68,000 to more than 93,000 dollars, a new absolute record. A dazzling surge which suggests that the symbolic threshold of 100,000 dollars could be crossed this year, even before the inauguration of the new American President.

A possibility to which Thibaut Desachy, director of asset management at Coinhouse, subscribes: “This is a level that should be reached in 2024. We see that Bitcoin is on very good momentum since the election of Donald Trump which was a very important catalyst.” “With the current price trajectory, it is possible that we could reach $100,000 by the end of the year, or even sooner”agrees Simon Peters, market analyst at eToro. An end-of-year “rally” which would ultimately appear logical, with investors flocking to Bitcoin – which is causing its price to rise – in the hope of pro-cryptocurrency measures during the mandate of the new President, which would further increase its price , and the chances of capital gains on resale.

One announcement in particular has driven speculation in recent days: “that of the American President-elect and Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis to make Bitcoin a central asset of the Federal Reserve”underlines Jérémy Le Bescont, editorial director at Coinshares. The American Federal Reserve (Fed) could indeed acquire no less than a million Bitcoins in the coming months, “i.e. 5% of the total in circulation, which would send the price upward again”confirms Alexis Boeglin, crypto expert from broker CrypCool.

A consequence also of Bitcoin ETFs and halving

However, this potential revolution – which would make Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset within the largest economy in the world – is not the only one pushing the cryptocurrency upward. Two events that occurred earlier this year also push for a new record to be reached before December 31. First, the arrival on the market of Bitcoin ETFs. These financial instruments, which replicate its price, in fact require “massive purchases by big banks and asset managers”points out Thibaut Desachy.

We must then remember that last April a determining phenomenon for the price of Bitcoin took place: the “Halving”, or the halving of the issuance of Bitcoin on the market. However, this scarcity of supply, which occurs every four years, has systematically boosted the price of cryptocurrency: “We always see a “Bull Run” (rise in price, Editor’s note) six to eight months after the halving,” raises Thibaut Desachy: we are therefore right in the middle of it.

The $100,000 milestone may not be sustainable

However, even if Bitcoin crossed this new threshold, this does not mean that it will permanently establish itself above it. Two factors could also weigh down its price in the coming months. A strong dollar (+7% for the Dollar Index – which measures its value against six currencies – since the beginning of October) and a rise in American bond rates (4.4% over ten years currently) is generally disadvantageous for cryptocurrencies . Indeed, in this case, investors tend to favor the return on bonds and less risky investments, which yield more, and a tangible and “safe” currency, such as the dollar.

In this environment, even if we cross $100,000 in the coming days, “we can consider that a correction towards the 75,000 or 80,000 dollar zone would then be legitimate”notes Alexandre Baradez, analyst for the IG group. A “pullback”that is to say a correction of the price, cannot therefore be excluded, after reaching a new record.