Buying real estate: cities where prices continue to fall, and those where they are already rising

The evolution of the prices of old apartments in the 50 largest cities in France, over one year, splits the country in two. A large half of these municipalities continue to see their prices fall while they are recovering in the others.

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The prices of old apartments have stagnated in the 50 largest cities in France in November. According to data collected by the real estate advertisement portal SeLoger for Capitalthe average price per square meter has, at best, increased by 0.9% compared to October, and, at worst, fallen by 1.1%. “November is the copy of October. Since the end of September, we have entered the traditionally least dynamic period for the real estate market.households tend to buy in the spring in order to move in in the summer, before the start of the school year, explains Alexandra Verlhiac, economist at SeLoger. What is therefore “amazing »according to her, “these are the cities where prices rose, even slightly, last month”like La Rochelle, Quimper or Mulhouse. Increases that “may be a harbinger of an early restart of the market in these cities, before spring 2025”says Alexandra Verlhiac.

Over one year, the prices of old apartments in the country’s top 50 cities present a much more interesting configuration. A large half of them continue to see their prices fall, with at the head of the pack Le Mans (-12.6%). In this city located an hour by TGV from Paris, “apartment prices had risen enormously after Covid, by 32% on average between May 2020 and May 2023, recalls Alexandra Verlhiac. And they started to fall later than in other cities, from May-June 2023”in the wake of the slowdown in transactions linked to the rapid rise in credit rates between the start of 2022 and the start of 2024. The 12.6% plunge in prices at Le Mans therefore results from a later correction than for the market as a whole .

The particular case of Antibes, Cannes and Nice

Other cities have seen significant price drops over the last 12 months, such as Lyon (-7.1%), Grenoble (-6.4%), Mérignac (-6.4%), a commune bordering Bordeaux, or even Nantes (-5.7%). “HAS Nantes, Lyon, Bordeauxprices had risen sharply before the real estate crisis” which began in mid-2022, recontextualizes Alexandra Verlhiac. It is therefore logical that they fall more sharply than in other cities.

On the other hand, around twenty municipalities show prices increasing over one year. These increases are certainly unrelated to the double-digit increases experienced before the rise in credit rates. But in Cannes, Antibes and Nice, the prices of old apartments have still increased by 3% to 4% over the last 12 months. The case of these three cities is quite particular, their market being driven by “of the second-time buyerspurchases of second homes, which are less dependent on the use of credit»buyers can finance them through the sale of a first property, explains Alexandra Verlhiac.

A continuation of the urban exodus

Marseillewhere prices increased by 3.4% over one year, presents a different scenario. “The city has gained in attractiveness since Covid and prices there are lower than in other large cities”analyzes the SeLoger economist. In fact, count on 3,633 euros per square meter on average to buy an apartment in the Marseille capital, compared to 4,614 euros in Lyon and 9,282 euros in Paris.

Bourges and Orléans even see their prices increase by almost 4% over one year. “There has been a fairly strong recovery in real estate transactions in Bourges since the start of the rate cut last spring,” observes Alexandra Verlhiac. The consequence, here too, of the continuation of a certain post-Covid urban exodus, towards cities where prices do not exceed 1,901 euros and 2,511 euros per square meter, respectively.