Real estate investment: Have the SCPIs really finished with the crisis?

The latest figures on the market for civil real estate investment companies are rather optimistic about the resilience of this placement. But the reality is a little more nuanced. Decryption.

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Have the SCPIs left the real estate crisis in the rear view mirror? Since July 2023 and the beginning of a wave of price reductions in shares, this real estate investment, hitherto deemed not very risky and profitable, has aroused the distrust of savers. But despite the crisis, this investment continued to distribute attractive yields: 4.72% on average in 2024, and up to more than 10% for the best. Thus, the Pierre-Papier remains a good option to diversify its heritage and make good deals. But provided you are selective. Because to look at the market as a whole, the exit from the crisis does not yet seem completely acquired, if we are to believe the last report of the ASPIM (French Association of Real Estate Companies).

A low net collection for a first quarter

At first glance, SCPIs attract new investors: net collection (deducted withdrawals) has a good 35% increase in the first quarter, compared to the same period a year ago. In total, the SCPIs garnered 1 billion euros between January and March, compared to 700 million euros a year earlier. With more decline, quarterly collection is mainly closer to its average observed over the past 10 years: 1.5 billion euros.

Encouraging signals, but to put things in perspective for Paul Bourdois, co -founder of France SCPI: “In principle, the collection of the first quarter is still the strongest of the year, but the figures announced can raise fears of an annual collection in halftone. Above all, we note that the collection focuses on a handful of players, and therefore does not concern the entire sector. The new SCPIs, who arrived on the market in 2024, in particular, collect little. ”

The yields are maintained without progressing

This is the undoubtedly the most crucial indicator for investors: the distribution rate (TD), that is to say the yield of a SCPI, which corresponds to the rents perceived by the management company, and regularly transferred to the partners. According to the ASPIM, in the first quarter, 64% of SCPIs maintained or increased this level of distribution. Average TD was thus 1.13% in the first quarter of 2025, a level comparable to that observed in the first quarter of 2024. By announcing this first distribution rate, an average yield of 4.52% would end at the end of 2025, less than in 2024 (4.72%). But beware, this figure must be taken with tweezers: SCPI shares have melted by 4.50% between January 1, 2024 and January 1, 2025, the average dividend really perceived by the partner is therefore lower this year, even at identical distribution rates. Indeed, the distribution rate is none other than the relationship between the dividend and the price price. If the latter decreases, the TD increases artificially.

But there is, however, possibility of being more optimistic. Indeed, it is usually the fourth quarter which is the best when it comes to distribution rates. Management companies reversing in principle more to partners once the costs and expenses of the year – such as work – behind them. Thus, it is not impossible to reach a higher average rate, but without frank progression, a priori, compared to last year.

The number of pending units difficult to drop

This is the great fear that the sector crisis has agitated in the past two years: the impossibility, for partners, to withdraw their bet when they wish. Indeed, when the collection becomes scarce, new investors can miss the call to acquire the shares of those who wish to go out. The shares then remain pending buyers. “As of March 31, 2025, the total value of pending shares amounts to 2.25 billion euros, or 2.6% of the capitalization of the market. This total amount is down 4.9 % compared to the previous quarter ”note the aspim. As of December 31, 2024, the value of pending shares amounted to 2.4 billion euros, or 2.7% of capitalization.

However, the ASPIM stresses that this decline in the total value of the pending shares is misleading, since it is explained by the fact that SCPI concerned fell their prices of shares during the quarter. So, in reality, “The number of pending shares has remained generally stable over the period”. If we do not note any improvement on this liquidity problem, Thomas Lecomte, co-founder and president of the Epargnoo platform, recalls “That the number of SCPIs affected by these waiting lists remains limited to fifteen, out of around 200. In addition, we see some moving, and in particular start to sell assets to reimburse investors.”