Retirees from the private sector will still have to wait before knowing the exact amount of the next increase in their Agirc-Arrco supplementary pension. Although the calculation rules already make it possible to outline a first range, no final decision has yet been taken. Everything will depend in particular on the evolution of inflation between now and the fall and the decisions taken by the social partners.
As forecasts currently stand, the increase could be between 1.2% and 2%. This estimate is based on the rules provided for by the national inter-professional agreement which governs the regime, but it remains likely to evolve before the final decision expected on October 17for entry into force on November 1, 2026.
An increase which could be between 1.2% and 2%
Unlike basic pensions, revalued according to the provisions of the Social Security Code, Agirc-Arrco supplementary pensions are managed by the social partners. The revaluation terms are set out in a national interprofessional agreement signed by employer and union organizations.
Concretely, the basis for discussion is based on the inflation forecast excluding tobacco for the calendar year published by INSEE. At this stage, the institute is counting on a inflation of 2% in 2026. The agreement currently in force then plans to subtract 0.4 points to this forecast, which leads to a working basis of 1.6%.
However, this base does not automatically correspond to the rate that will be applied to pensions. The board of directors of Agirc-Arrco has room for maneuver of 0.4 pointsboth upward and downward. If inflation were confirmed at 2%, the revaluation could therefore theoretically be between 1.2% and 2%.
“For the moment, we have no warning signs on the outcome of the negotiation”explains the general secretariat of Agirc-Arrco. A new economic report from INSEE is expected in September and will serve as a basis for discussions between the social partners before the final decision of the board of directors scheduled for October 17.
Preserve purchasing power without compromising the future of the plan
However, inflation is not the only criterion taken into account. The social partners must also ensure that the financial balance of the system is preserved in the long term.
Agirc-Arrco is notably subject to a “golden rule”which requires having, permanently and over a period of fifteen years, reserves representing at least six months of benefits. This requirement aims to guarantee the payment of pensions, including in the event of an economic or demographic crisis.
“We must find a fair balance between enhancing the purchasing power of retirees and preserving pensions people who contribute today for tomorrow »explains the general secretariat of Agirc-Arrco.
Based on a pay-as-you-go system, the Agirc-Arrco regime must preserve its financial balance over time. To achieve this, it relies in particular on its reserves, which make it possible to absorb economic shocks. without resorting to debt. “Reserves are used to absorb shocks. The great strength of Agirc-Arrco is that it has never resorted to to debt », underlines the general secretariat of Agirc-Arrco.
Demography, a major challenge for the coming years
Beyond the revaluation expected in November, the main challenge of the coming years “ is now the demography »estimates the general secretariat of Agirc-Arrco. The increase in life expectancy And the decline in the birth rate are gradually changing the balance between the number of active workers and that of retirees.
To anticipate these developments, the plan carries out financial projections over a fifteen year horizon based on hypotheses published by INSEE and other public organizations concerning inflation, wages, unemployment and even demographics. This approach makes it possible to assess the consequences of decisions taken today on the future balance of the regime.
These projections obviously do not make it possible to anticipate all exceptional events, such as a health crisis or international conflict. However, they offer a management framework allowing decisions to be adjusted when circumstances change.
The revaluation of November 1, 2026 does not therefore only meet an objective of supporting purchasing power. It is part of a broader logic of solidarity between generations, intended to guarantee the pensions of current retirees while ensuring the sustainability of the scheme for future beneficiaries. It is this balance that the social partners will have to find when decision of October 17.
