Bitcoin: Can the drop in BCE rates relaunch its course?

The European Central Bank further softened its monetary policy this Thursday, March 6. Good news a priori for equity markets. But can it influence the course of Bitcoin?

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And six. This Thursday, March 6, the Council of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a sixth drop in its main guiding rates in eight months. A decision which should have a positive impact for borrowers – who will see the cost of their mortgage drop – and negative, conversely, for savers, who will see a new withdrawal of the remuneration of their short -term savings (banking booklets, term accounts, etc.). But what will it be for investors who place their capital in the financial markets or cryptocurrencies, in particular bitcoin?

Historically, what is positive for equity markets is favorable during Bitcoin. And this is the case for dropping rate drops: when the cost of the credit decreases for individuals, it also falls into companies. The latter can therefore more easily finance their activity and their future growth, which is generally beneficial for their valuation on the stock market. In addition, when the yields of secure investments comply, savers tend to reorient themselves towards risky solutions such as financial markets. New flows that can also boost the request for shares and therefore their courses.

No impact to wait for the Bitcoin course

However, if the trend is very positive for European equity markets, “It will have no impact on the Bitcoin course”says Antoine Andreani, research manager at XTB France. Indeed, the course of the “queen of crypto” “Is historically correlated with the action indices, but only American, like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq”recalls Thibault Desachy, director of asset management at Coinhouse. However, on the other side of the Atlantic, the American Federal Reserve (FED) decided not to lower its rates in January, unlike the ECB, due to less good results on the inflation front. Also, the main American indices have been struggling since the start of the year (-1.13% for the S&P 500, -0.94% for the Nasdaq), which partly explains the void of Bitcoin.

It will therefore be necessary to scrutinize the health of the American economy and the future announcements of Donald Trump in favor of the crypto ecosystem to anticipate a bitcoin rebound in the coming months. Because even if the possession of cryptocurrencies is up in Europe (12% of holders in France in 2024 according to the Adan), this request – “Which emanates from individuals, and not institutional (banks, investment funds, etc.)”Note Thibault Desachy – is still too low to have an upward or downward impact on the price of Bitcoin, for example.

To invest in European scholarships, you will also have to be selective

Finally, for investors who would like to take advantage of the drop in BCE rates to get started on European scholarships, the game is not won either. Indeed, according to Claudia Pansieri, director of investments at UBS France, “The equity markets already largely anticipated this drop in rates, the reactions will therefore be very limited.»» In other words, this new drop in rates is already reflected in the rebound in European indices in recent weeks (+9.01% for Stoxx Europe 600 since January 1). For the CAC 40, which already rubs shoulders with its historic summit, it will for example be difficult to climb much higher.

An observation shared by Laurent Chaudurge, member of the BDL Capital Management Investment Committee: “Europe is less decorated at the start of the year, it will now have to be more selective. We are for example quite positive in the sectors and companies that will participate in the economic recovery of Europe: German companies, construction, infrastructure, banks.“Besides the rate drops, which go well”give oxygen to the marketsAccording to this expert, it is also the investment plans announced in Europe which will be decisive for the course of European equities in the coming months.