One shines, the other collapses. Gold and Bitcoin, two of the best performing assets of 2025 so far, are now moving in opposite directions. For the precious metal, a new record year is ahead, with its price rising by no less than… 60%! An ounce of gold was trading at $2,400 on January 1, and is now around $4,000, after reaching a historic high of $4,300 on October 17.
For Bitcoin, the journey was also remarkable, with an increase of 30% between January 1, 2025 and October 7, when it reached its all-time high, at around $124,000. Between May and last week, the queen of cryptocurrencies had not fallen below the $100,000 mark. But since then, things have fallen: Bitcoin was trading this Friday, November 21, around $84,000. A correction of 32% since its October peak.
When the end of the year rhymes with profit taking
According to analysts, the end of the year is conducive to profit taking: investors resell their Bitcoin in order to cash in their capital gains. Massive sales which cause the price to fall. “Logical, since in anticipation of a potential explosion of the AI bubble, large asset managers first offload the most speculative assets, such as Bitcoin, before attacking stocks”comments Antoine Baradez, head of market analysis at IG France.
Yesterday, Thursday, November 20, the publication of figures that were less bad than expected on employment in the United States (the unemployment rate only increased by 0.1% between August and September) also raised fears that the American Federal Reserve (Fed) would take longer than expected to lower its key rates. However, falling rates mean cheaper money, and a potential influx of capital to invest in risky assets like Bitcoin.
The risk of a “bloodbath”
If the outlook for the end of the year is gloomy, can Bitcoin fall even further? In his “Good morning market” show today, Antoine Andreani, research director for the XTB platform, predicts “a bloodbath, if Bitcoin does not regain 10% before the weekly close on Sunday evening. If he doesn’t succeed, it is possible that it will fall back to 40,000 or 35,000 dollars.. A good reason to abandon your positions before hitting bottom?
For Antoine Baradez, on the contrary, “for a somewhat patient investor, at these levels, we have a real opportunity to buy into a dip, which can make sense for someone who has faith in cryptocurrencies. However, I would not bet that the fall in prices will not continue if the American stock market also falters”. The opportunity to stock up on Bitcoin at an attractive price is therefore there, provided you have the right heart.
Gold as a fallback solution?
And for less intrepid investors, can gold be a fallback solution? The most precious of metals also experienced a drop in mid-October, falling from $4,300 per ounce to $3,900 in around ten days. Here too, due to massive profit-taking by institutional investors (large banks, asset managers, pension funds, etc.). However, the future looks brighter for gold than for Bitcoin.
For Alexandre Baradez, “the geopolitical crises that fueled the gold price rally over the past three years are fading a bit, but now the fall in the dollar and U.S. rates could take over”. If the Fed ends up lowering its rates next year, it could further push down the price of the dollar (down 10% against the euro since January 1). However, when the value of the note decreases, investors are more likely to turn to other safe haven assets, such as gold.
In addition, the long-term catalysts for gold prices are also encouraging: “The long-term supporting factors remain: the limited production capacities of gold, its hedging properties against inflation and the constant appetite of Central Banks – in particular from emerging countries – for it, which they see as the only alternative to the US dollar. For example, China recently authorized its banks to hold part of their reserves in gold.notes Fabien Benchetrit, asset manager at BNP Asset Management.
