Booklet A and Life Insurance: why the return is likely to drop in 2025

62% of French people fear a drop in the return on their savings, according to the Odoxa-Groupama barometer for Capital and BFM Business. Online in sight, booklet A, life insurance and the scholarship.

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“New savings record This quarter: 77% of French people save in April 2025 … It is 2 more points than in February and 6 more points than a year ago. It is even our absolute record since 2019. And the French have saved a lot: one in three (33%) saves more than 200 euros each month and 14% more than 500 euros every month, ”according to the Odoxa-Groupama savings barometer for Capital and BFM Business. An observation validated by the official INSEE figures, where the savings rate stands higher than ever (except COVID period), at 17.9% of disposable income, against an average, before the health crisis, by 15%.

The French save when they worry, and with the war in Ukraine, political instability in France, the trade war launched against the world by Donald Trump, they have every reason to make bad blood! But another fear, more deaf, appears: “Savers do not know any more where to place their money!” Booklets and life insurance are always the most popular investments, but they are less and less attractive and inexorably retreat, “notes Gaël Sliman, president of Odoxa. Worse: “62% of savers say they are” not confident “about the return on their savings …”

An inexorable drop in the rate of the booklet A

The booklet A currently offers a rate of return of 2.40%(after spending two years to 3%), well above inflation (1%). But as it is indexed to inflation precisely, there is every chance that at the next revision of its rate, on August 1, it retreats again. Savers have clearly understood this mechanism well: “7 out of 10 savers (69%) think that the rate of booklet A will further drop to 1.75% instead of 3% in 2024. 81% of them think that the State should intervene to prevent it,” notes Gaël Sliman.

According to capital calculations, at current inflation rates, projected until June, the application of the booklet calculation formula highlighted its rate to 1.70% for August 1 … Will the state give a boost? Not so easy, because 60% of the sums collected are used to finance social housing. And, the rate of booklet A is also the one to which social landlords borrow to finance … social housing, which France so cruelly needs. But, without boost, the French announce the color: “4 out of 10 holders (38%) assure that they will abandon their booklet A if its yield drops to 1.75% or less”, according to the barometer.

Global scholarships in the storm

With the global crisis triggered by President Trump and its consequences on the financial markets and in particular the scholarships which, since the thunderous announcements of April 2, have made the roller coaster, with variations in an amplitude never observed since the Second World War, the savers are breathing.

“No luck for the attractiveness of the scholarship: while in recent months, she finally seduced the French (in February we noted that her attractiveness had doubled in 2 years with 6%) because of the low yields of their traditional investments, she is receding this month following the strong decreases noted near the trigger of the trade war by Donald Trump”, observes Gaël Sliman.

The fund in euros at half mast

Finally, the feeling of the French is mixed concerning life insurance. They anticipate a declining return for the fund without risk in euros. Life insurance is indeed composed of the guaranteed fund in euros (the capital cannot lower and it is revalued each year of a rate announced at the beginning of the following year) and units of accounts (shares, bonds, real estate, etc.). These account units, unlike the fund in euros, are not guaranteed and you can record capital losses.

In 2023 and 2024, the funds guaranteed in euros offered, on average, 2.60% return. Will he drop in 2025? It is a bit early in the year to say it. To serve the rate of the fund in euros, insurers are mainly invested in bonds, a class of assets well oriented this year in terms of performance. On the other hand, for the 7.3% on average invested in the equity markets, the performance will not be known at the end of the year.

In addition to these strictly financial concerns, insurers also always keep an eye on their oldest competitor, the booklet A. And, as we have said, the return is likely to drop to August 1. If this is still the case for the following revision, on February 1, 2026, it is then a safe bet that insurers will accompany the decline, with an average yield of the fund guaranteed in euros which could drop between 2% and 2.20% in 2025. Appointment in early 2026 to be clear!