The game is almost over. Two and a half months before the end of the year, the race for the best placement of the year should no longer arouse great suspense. For investors in French shares, the year promises to be profitable, despite the political upheavals in France. This Wednesday, October 22, the CAC 40 set a new record, closing up 0.64%, at 8,258.86 points. Since January 1, 2025, the price of the Parisian index has increased by more than 11%. By integrating the return on dividends paid, the total performance (“total return”) even climbs to 13.77%according to Bloomberg data.
A good surprise given the news? Not really, “Political uncertainty has almost become the normality, it has had little impact on the price of the CAC 40 since the dissolution (of June 9, 2024, Editor’s note). In the event of a political crisis, the sectors most at risk are banks and construction, but for others, declines are rather buying opportunities.explains Grégoire Kounowski, director of research at Norman K.
A CAC 40 driven by industrial stocks and “utilities” (collective services)
For now, the sectors which have driven up the Parisian rating the most this year are industry (Thales, Safran, Airbus), community services and telecoms (Bouygues, Engie, Orange), and a few banks, including Société Générale (+95% since January 1). Conversely, “discounted values, such as Pernod Ricard (-17% this year) can display a purchase price worth looking at”, confides Grégoire Kounowski. A stock like LVMH is moving at the end of the year far from its historical records (around 600 euros compared to almost 900 at its highest).
However, it is impossible not to compare the performance of the flagship index of the Paris Stock Exchange with that of our neighbors. Even if it finishes largely in the green, the CAC 40 should appear to be a bad performer compared to the German Dax (+20% since January 1), the Spanish Ibex (+36%) or even the Italian Eb (+27%). But all these indices pale in comparison to the other star investment of the year: gold, which should once again have a record year.
The end of a golden period?
After already a 35% increase in 2025, the price of the precious metal has already shown an increase of almost 50% since January 1, the price of an ounce (around 31 grams) having passed from 2,500 euros to almost 3,700 euros. Good news for investors who have held on to their yellow metal for more than a year. But when will it be necessary to part with it to cash in its added value?
Difficult to say for Grégoire Kounowski: “Today, gold has become a speculative asset. Players are investing a lot to take advantage of the upward trend, but who can predict the end of the euphoria?.» According to the expert, the psychological threshold of $5,000 per ounce should be monitored, because it could trigger massive sales. A first warning sign? Following profit taking, the price of gold lost 5% on Monday October 21.
