Always higher. Gold has reached a new peak this Tuesday, September 2, at $ 3,500 for an ounce, after an increase of $ 116 in a week. Four months before the end of the year, the precious metal course still displays a striking progression: +32% since January 1. Again, because he was already on the rank of the best investments of the year in 2024, with an increase in his price of 35% over a year. Is it possible that gold reiterates, even surpasses, such a performance this year? For the time being, the signals seem rather to indicate that the ascent could continue.
The first engine of the rise of gold remains uncertainty. And in this area, the year 2025 was still responsible: pursuit of the Ukraine war, an intensification of conflicts to the west of the Mediterranean, and, as a bonus, announces by Donald Trump of a massive recovery of customs duties on the scale of the globe, on April 2. In terms of uncertainty, difficult to make more unpredictable, because until recently, many countries did not know which sauce they would be eaten, that is to say how much the customs duties were raised which would fall on their exports to the United States.
A new outbreak due to the announcement of customs duties
Proof of the impact of this customs policy on the golden price, the precious metal reached its previous record on August 8, at 3,400 dollars per ounce, following an increase of $ 100 in a week. A flambé caused by the fear that gold passing through Switzerland be concerned by the customs duties of 39% imposed in the country. A possibility ultimately dismissed by the White House.
In addition to the level of uncertainty and geopolitical tension which should be maintained until the end of the year, two other catalysts could help push the price of gold. First, the expectation of a drop in rates of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), which is expected for the start of the school year. “Monetary policy is decisive for the golden price: when the rates drop, gold rises. The markets anticipate a drop in rates, and Trump also claims it. And if he has not yet obtained the case, the bad employment figures in the United States let imagine at least a drop in rates by the end of the year “explains Laurent Schwartz, president of the National Comptoir de l’Or.
The drop in rates and the dollar tends to increase gold
Indeed, when guiding rates drop, the yield of risk -free investments also falls, investors then tend to turn to investments that seem just as safe, but more efficient, as well as gold currently. In addition, the drop in rates also increases the amount of money in circulation, and in this case dollars, which lowers the value of the greenback. However, this is the other factor of rise in gold, “Which is extremely sensitive to the movements of the dollar”notes Antoine Andreani, senior market analyst XTB France.
More specifically, when the dollar drops, gold tends to go up. Following Donald Trump’s announcements on customs duties, the dollar, for example, fell by more than 5% against the euro, between April 2 and April 22. At the same time, gold increased by more than 7%. When its value decreases, the dollar also loses its status of refuge value, which gold then ensures in its place in the eyes of investors. Also, “It is not so much the price of gold that rises as the currencies that depreciate in the face of gold”continues Antoine Andreani. Reason why the performance of gold is much more significant in dollar this year (+32%), than in Euro (+17.9%).
Given these three different catalysts, what about the forecasts of the Gold Course for the end of the year? Currently around 3,500 dollars, the ounce could still climb up to $ 3,700, according to the most optimistic analysis of the Goldman Sachs business bank, or fall back to 3,300 dollars in the most pessimistic scenario. Bank JP Morgan anticipates an ounce of gold at 4,000 dollars on December 31, 2025.
