Fear on public finances, and panic on the stock market? Friday, September 12, the Fitch ratings rating agency lowered a notch of the French debt note. The tricolor signature thus went from “AA-” to “A+”. If France is sanctioned for its lack of serious budgetary, this has not currently affected the shareholders’ portfolio invested in France. The CAC 40 remained hermetic to this bad news. The Paris Stock Exchange started the week as if nothing had happened, with a sixth consecutive session in the green on Monday September 15, and an increase of 0.92% at the end. A gain that the CAC, however, sold this Tuesday, September 16 (-1%).
How to explain this relative resilience? First, it should be remembered that the companies listed within CAC 40 are international groups, whose activity and results depend on the world. This explains the little impact of the French situation. In addition, the behavior of the tricolor scholarship remains largely dependent on newcomers from the American financial markets: “The CAC 40 will be more attentive to the Rate of rates announced on the side of the Federal Reserve (Fed) American this month ”, explains Alexandre Baradez, manager market analysis at IG France.
The CAC 40 remains dependent on the newcomers from the United States
Also, according to the analyst, it is above all “A strong correction on the American indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ) or an unexpected global crisis which could lead to a substantial fall in the CAC 40 “ in the coming months. However, by the end of the year, he still notes that the financial markets will have two points of vigilance: “The political and budgetary situation in France (if the rates of the French debt came to fly)”And “Geopolitics, with the situation in Ukraine still, and more recently with the” air outflows “of Russia in Poland”.
If it has not so far unruly, the CAC 40 is therefore not completely decorated with the image given by France on its serious budgetary. Moreover, compared to other European indices in very good health, “The CAC 40 underperform since the dissolution (announced by Emmanuel Macron on June 9, 2024, editor’s note), compared to its neighbors”Pointe Christopher Dembik, senior investment advisor at Pictet AM. This year, for example, since January 1, the flagship index of the Paris Stock Exchange is in positive (+5.74%), but it is indeed less good than its neighbors: the German Dax (+16.48%), the Spanish IBEX (+29.86%), or the Italian MIB (+24.33%). Also, the investment advisor recommends investors to be more interested in these indices than in CAC 40.
