If the general election were held today, Fratelli d’Italia would confirm its position as the leading party with 29%, with a 5-point advantage over the Partito Democratico, which would obtain 24%. This is what emerges from the Political Barometer of the Demopolis Institute, directed by Pietro Vento, which analyzed the weight of the parties two years before the September 2022 vote.
The 5 Star Movement, currently engaged in an internal conflict between Giuseppe Conte and Beppe Grillo, would stand at 11.5%. Forza Italia, with 9.4%, would overtake the League, which instead would stop at 8.6%. The Green Left alliance (AVS) would register 6.5%, confirming the growth already highlighted during the European Elections. The data also signal a reduction in the Third Pole, with Azione at 2.5%, Italia Viva at 2% and Più Europa at 1.5%.
«Analyzing the trends of the first three political forces – explains the director of Demopolis, Pietro Vento – Giorgia Meloni’s party maintains, with 29%, a stable consensus, in line with the European elections, growing by 3 points compared to September 2022. In the comparison with the 2022 Political Elections, according to Demopolis data, Elly Schlein’s PD grows by 5 points, which with 24% effectively confirms the result of the European elections».
The 5 Star Movement, according to the analysis, shows a slight recovery compared to June, but with 11.5% it still remains 4 points below the result of two years ago.
The Demopolis Institute also analyzed the weight of the coalitions: the Center-Right parties, currently in government, would have 47% today. The alliance of the Center-Left parties (PD and AVS), together with the M5S, would obtain 42%, while the three parties of the so-called “Third Pole” would reach a total of 6%. The sum of the Center-Left, the M5S and the Third Pole – the so-called “broad field” – would reach 48%, but at the moment this remains only a hypothesis.
The survey also focused on Italians’ trust in the Executive. Trust in Giorgia Meloni remains stable at 43%, proving to be rather resistant to political debate. This is a figure that is 5 points higher than the 38% of citizens who promote the Government’s work, a figure that is down 2 points compared to the 40% recorded six months ago.
Demopolis highlights a growing political polarization in public opinion. 92% of Fratelli d’Italia voters express a positive opinion on the Executive, as do 70% of Lega supporters and 67% of Forza Italia supporters. In stark contrast, among those who vote for opposition parties, only 3% of PD voters, 2% of M5S and AVS supporters express a favorable opinion on the Meloni Government.
Information note: the survey was conducted by the Demopolis Institute on a national sample of 2,000 interviewees, statistically representative of the universe of the Italian adult population. Supervision of the opinion poll of 17-18 September 2024 by Marco E. Tabacchi.
Coordination of the Demopolis Political Barometer by Pietro Vento, with the collaboration of Giusy Montalbano and Maria Sabrina Titone. Insights and methodology on: www.demopolis.it