Electricity: the off-peak revolution is coming from 2025 to reduce your bill

The Energy Regulatory Commission wants to “modernize” the distribution of off-peak electricity hours. These attractive prices, mainly anchored in the evening and during the night, will be moved to full daylight during the summer, a time when consumption is currently too low compared to production.

After more than a year of reflection and discussions with players in the sector, the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) finally lays down its cards. The regulator launched a public consultation on October 17 in order to “modernize” the peak and off-peak hours of electricity and “to encourage a shift in consumption habits towards periods when energy is abundant and less expensive”. More precisely, the CRE wishes to generalize “gradually” off-peak hours during summer afternoons from August 2025. A process which will take 2 years, and which would result in 85% of customers who opted for an off-peak option paying less for their electricity at these times .

An upheaval for the 40% of households and small businesses who have learned to shift their electricity consumption. Some have adopted this habit for years, but will have to change their approach. But why modify a mechanism that has proven itself since its creation in 1960? What will be the impact of these changes for users? And what savings can you expect? Explanations.

What’s the problem with off-peak hours?

Designed to encourage households to shift their consumption during hours of low demand, off-peak hours no longer correspond to the reality of the French electricity system. The production of renewable energy, and especially photovoltaic, has widely developed in Europe, particularly in Germany, Spain and to a lesser extent in France. It provides very cheap electricity during the day when the sun is at its peak. Except that many subscribers to this regulated tariff option have been allocated off-peak hours in the evening by Enedis, where solar production is nevertheless zero. “We want to place off-peak hours differently depending on the time of year. In summer, it is entirely possible to incorporate them during the day, from 2 p.m. to 6 p.m. for example”Emmanuelle Wargon, the president of the CRE, recently explained to Capital.

Why is electricity now cheaper during the day?

The price of electricity is governed by a market operating on the principle of supply and demand. When demand exceeds production, prices rise. They decrease when the balance of power reverses. Sometimes so much so that electricity prices go into negative territory. Electricity producers therefore literally sell at a loss to suppliers, who can then charge very competitive prices to households.

France, even by stopping a large part of its nuclear production, therefore finds itself with an excess of electricity. According to the consultancy firm Omnegy, specializing in energy issues, France experienced 347 hours at zero or negative prices during the first half of 2024. Only Spain manages to do better. As the development of photovoltaic production will intensify – France is well behind in this area – afternoon hours in summer will always be cheaper in the future.

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How would households benefit from these new off-peak hours?

Through their electricity suppliers, whether they are at the regulated sales tariff (TRV) or not. EDF has more than 9 million TRV customers who have opted for peak hours – off-peak hours. Its competitors, who set their prices based on those of EDF, share the rest of the pie with several million customers. All suppliers will be required, at the suggestion of the electricity network manager Enedis, to offer them new off-peak hours during the day if this has not already been done. Currently, 60% of subscribing households benefit from electricity at a reduced rate for 8 hours of the night only, according to the network manager. And for the remaining 40%, off-peak hours are divided between two time slots: from 12 p.m. to 5 p.m., and from 8 p.m. to 8 a.m.

When will these changes take place?

From summer 2025. The change will however be gradual. “Suppliers must support their customers. The idea is not to have the big night but to get feedback as you go along.», Explains the CRE. Legally, to modify the off-peak hours of a contract, the notice period payable by suppliers is at least 6 months. And from 2027, the number of off-peak hours included in the day – currently 8 hours – could increase to make the option even more attractive.

Could off-peak prices change, incidentally, to encourage more consumption during the day?

This is indeed one of the cards that the CRE wishes to play down. The regulator had already acted on February 1 to temporarily deviate from the method of calculating prices for this option. The tipping point for households – that is to say the share of electricity consumption that must be placed during off-peak hours to become profitable – has thus been provisionally established at 30% since February 1, 2024, while the usual formula would have increased this threshold to 55%. The idea of ​​the CRE is therefore to keep this profitability threshold low enough for households. “We will carry out a more in-depth reflection on the method of calculating regulated sales prices”recently explained to CapitalDominique Jamme, the general director of CRE. A desire confirmed at Capital since: “The fact that peak hours can be different in winter and summer allows us to differentiate and increase the price incentive”estimates the regulator.