ETF, actions: the American economy in the red, should you sell everything?

The American clues win at the start of the year, sowing doubt among investors. Should you sell your ETFs and shares or, on the contrary, see in this correction an opportunity to purchase?

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Panic on board for ETF holders and American actions. Since the start of the year, the indices across the Atlantic have been in the middle of a shipwreck: -2.44% For S&P 500 and -2.40% For the Nasdaq, only the Dow Jones (the 30 largest capitalizations in the country) slightly leaves the head of the water (+0.29%). Problem: it is of course these indices and the values ​​that make them that French investors are mainly taken on, if we believe the figures revealed on March 3 by the Trade Republic Savings Platform, which has a million customers in France.

The application has indeed identified the 10 ETF (or “trackers”) and the 10 most popular actions among its users who have opted for a savings plan-that is to say an automatic and regular investment plan. On the ETF side, we find the S&P 500 worded in the dollar in the lead, then four other American indices or sub-indexes (such as the S&P 500 limited to information technologies), as well as two ETFs “MSCI World” which reply the performance of the largest global companies, and are therefore largely made up of American values. Regarding actions, only Totalenergies and LVMH Moët Hennessy stand out from a classification dominated by the US titles (Nvidia, Apple and Amazon in mind).

Tumbled after two years of two -digit performance

In other words, for investors, it is the cold shower, after two years of performance at the Zenith: +44% in 2023 then +25% in 2024, for example, for the Nasdaq. So high valuation levels “That it was logical that we are moving this year towards a correction, the clues needed a break”, Estem Antoine Andreani, research manager at XTB France. And the trigger for this correction came from China: “”The arrival of Chinese AI Deepseek has weakened the American values ​​linked to the AI ​​which had been carrying the clues for two years. The problem is that these values ​​represented a third of the performance of the American clues, so when they let go, all the clues let go ”, Analysis Alexandre Hezez, strategist of the Richelieu group.

This without forgetting the fears aroused by the return of Donald Trump to the White House, in terms of inflation, employment, or even consumption: “Since the inauguration of Trump, the markets have also become aware of the threat posed by customs duties on American growth”raises Claudia Panseri, director of investments at UBS France. Hence the question raised by the red flags which flash dangerously in your trading app or your securities account: should you leave the American ship and sell your positions?

The time is rather for investment

On the contrary, according to our experts, the moment is rather conducive to the pursuit of your investments, or even to go on board if it has not yet been done. “The investment scenario will be more complicated than in 2024, but it does not prevent any correction of the American market is always an opportunity to enter, the annual performance in the long term is always around 10%”recalls Claudia Panseri. Indeed, according to Bloomberg data, over the past 20 years for example, the S&P 500 has an average annual return on 9.88%despite events such as the crisis of subprime or that of COVID-19.

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In other words, statistics argue for you to stay invested. Not to mention that placing your capital at the time when the courses retreat multiplies your chances of achieving a capital gain when they bounce back. And this could happen this year: “On the second part of the year, the impact of Trump’s tax reforms could for example have a positive impact on consumption”estimates Alexandre Hezez. According to the scenario acclaimed by our experts, the first drop in guiding rates of the American Federal Reserve (Fed) should also take place in July, and give a “boost” to the equity markets.

Finally, even the emergence of Deepseek, which sparked the current lower cycle, could ultimately be favorable to American technological values: “Admittedly Deepseek has opened a debate on the profitability of Nasdaq companies, but it will actually accelerate the AI ​​adoption process, by lowering the price of these solutions, and increasing sales volumes. Thus, we expect the AI ​​adoption rate, currently 6% in the United States, reaching 10% this year “Pointe Claudia Panseri.