![Europeans 2024: The European Greens lose a quarter of their MEPs Europeans 2024: The European Greens lose a quarter of their MEPs](https://media.lesechos.com/api/v1/images/view/6665ff7a8af0b26ddf26ee18/1280x720/01101705032949-web-tete.jpg)
The Greens have not repeated the miracle of 2019. According to the first estimates published by the European Parliament, they should obtain 53 seats, or 19 fewer than today (-26%), out of 720 MEPs.
The fall is particularly severe in Germany and France, the two countries which today have the most environmentalist MEPs (25 Germans and 12 French). The Greens obtained 12.1% and 5% respectively (first estimates) of the vote, compared to 20.5% and 13.5% in 2019. They would obtain 16 seats in Germany. In France, they should just pass the 5% mark allowing them to send 5 MEPs to Strasbourg.
Their maintenance, or even their slight progress, in the countries of Northern Europe (in Sweden, where they obtained 15.7% of the votes, which will allow them to keep 3 MEPs, or in the Netherlands, where they went from 3 to 4 seats) is not enough to compensate for their overall loss. ” This is unheard of ! » notes political scientist Daniel Boy, researcher at Cevipof.
Instrumentalized ecology
In 2019, the Greens created a surprise. “The polls then gave them around 40 elected officials, they had 75 (there are 72 today, Editor’s note). Many of their voters had made up their minds on Sunday morning,” recalls Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, researcher at the Jacques-Delors Institute. “There was then real momentum around the climate, between the IPCC reports, the youth marches and the voluntarism displayed by the European Commission, which made it possible to achieve the Green Deal. »
Since then, the atmosphere has changed. Not only did the war in Ukraine and rising prices happen, but environmental policies were exploited during the agricultural crisis, particularly by right-wing and far-right parties. “They have been criticized for excessive standards, even though the measures concerned have not yet come into force,” underlines Phuc-Vinh Nguyen. This is a failure for the Greens, who failed to provide after-sales service for the Green Deal. »
Fall in France and Germany
The vote of Europeans also reflects the fear that the climate transition, once implemented, will force them to tighten their belts. And this even if, according to a survey carried out by the British polling institute Focaldata just before the election, 68% of them consider the climate issue “important”.
In France, the list led by Marie Toussaint was largely siphoned off by that of Raphaël Glucksmann (Place Publique-PS), who also has a strong ecological ambition.
In other countries, the Greens have suffered from their participation in ruling government coalitions. This is the case of the “Grünen” in Germany. Their refusal to give up closing nuclear power plants, which forced the country to resort to gas and coal power plants, then the heating law discussed in 2023, which planned to force households to equip themselves with “clean” heating systems. (ultimately only new heaters will be affected), returned part of their electorate.
New coalitions
It remains to be seen what impact this failure will have on the Green Deal and European environmental policies. “The risk is that it will be interpreted as a rejection of all climate policy,” says Phuc-Vinh Nguyen.
The Greens could, however, regain weight in the European Parliament, within the framework of new searches for coalitions by the European People’s Party (EPP), which remains the main force in the European Parliament. “They could make their support conditional on the pursuit of climate ambitions within Europe,” underlines the researcher. The outcome of the negotiations which will take place in the coming weeks will be crucial.