While Ukraine’s advance in Russia’s Kursk Oblast has slowed in recent days, the situation in the east of the country has reportedly become critical for Ukrainian defenders: in the regions of Toretsk, Chassiv Yar and Pokrovsk, Russian forces have reportedly made rapid progress in recent weeks, even as media attention remains focused on Ukraine’s surprise incursion into western Russia.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, the Russians have continued their advances “near Svatove, Pokrovsk and the city of Donetsk”: “Russian forces have recently advanced near Pokrovsk, as Russian offensive operations continue in the region on August 30,” an ISW report reads.
“Disorganized defense”
In a message posted this Friday, August 30 on the Telegram application, Roman Ponomarenko, an officer in the 12e Specialized Brigade “Azov” of the Ukrainian National Guard has warned that the situation in the Donetsk region has become “uncontrollable”. Long described as “difficult, but under control”, the officer writes, the situation in Donbass is now “out of control”: “Currently, it seems that our front in Donbass has collapsed”. According to Ponomarenko, the Ukrainian defense is now disorganized, and the troops tasked with holding the line against Russian assaults are exhausted, weakened and, for some, demoralized.
Brutal Fighting
The Pokrovsk region, a small town of about 60,000 inhabitants before the war, appears to be one of the main targets of the ongoing Russian offensive in Donbass.
On August 29, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, described the ongoing fighting as “exceptionally brutal.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that the situation was “extremely difficult.”
Located at a major rail junction facilitating the supply of weapons and ammunition to Ukrainian forces, this former industrial city is used by Ukraine to resupply defenders along a large portion of the front, and its capture or destruction – both often carried out in tandem by the Russian military – could prove catastrophic for kyiv.
Railway junction
According to a recent report by the group “Frontintelligence Insight”, an Open Source research group (Osint) specializing in the study of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Pokrovsk would thus constitute an essential logistical node for Ukraine, whose importance would be equivalent to that of Kramatorsk, the last large metropolis of the Donetsk oblast still in Ukrainian hands.
“When assessing the situation, it must be remembered that Russia does not need to seize Pokrovsk to gain control of the railway,” the report said. “The city’s mere proximity allows Russian forces to target trains and vehicles with artillery, mortars, and drones, rendering the railway junction unusable. It is highly likely that train traffic in the city has already been suspended due to these risks.”
“A few weeks to live”
As the Russians advance into the Donbass, Ukraine’s incursion into Russia and the resources deployed to seize a portion of territory there now seem illogical, even irresponsible. “Masterstroke or madness? Ukraine could pay a high price for its incursion into Kursk,” summed up the title of a recent article by Roland Oliphant, Ukraine correspondent for the British daily newspaper “The Telegraph.” A sentiment shared by many observers, who believe that the Ukrainian general staff took reckless risks in launching the incursion into Kursk on August 6, and that the troops assigned to this offensive should have been used to reinforce the Donbass. “In the Pokrovsk sector, it’s the last straw.” “There is no exaggeration,” denounced on Facebook the very media-friendly Kateryna Polichtchouk, nom de guerre “Ptashka”, volunteer, caregiver and veteran of the siege of Azovstal, in Mariupol. While everyone is rejoicing over Kursk, Pokrovsk has only a few weeks left to live.”
For his part, Roman Ponomarenko believes that “the operation of the Ukrainian armed forces in the Kursk region” is not the cause of the Ukrainian collapse in Donbass, but the officer also expresses his doubts about the presence of a “plan” of the Ukrainian command to rectify the situation.
