![Global economy on track for a soft landing Global economy on track for a soft landing](https://media.lesechos.com/api/v1/images/view/666856524d83df51f91b5b87/1280x720/01101577361191-web-tete.jpg)
The global economy is on the path to a soft landing. After three consecutive years of slowdown, global growth is expected to stabilize this year and next, while inflation has returned to its lowest level in three years.
In its latest economic outlook report released Tuesday, the World Bank forecasts that global gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.6% in 2024, the same pace as the previous year, before recording a slight jump. in 2025 (2.7%).
This is a performance significantly below the average of 3.1% recorded during the decade preceding the Covid pandemic, underlines the multilateral institution. “Four years after the upheavals caused by the pandemic, followed by conflicts, inflation and monetary tightening, global economic growth is showing signs of stabilization,” underlines the Bank’s chief economist, Indermit Gill.
Indian dynamism
Overall, growth in developed countries would be below 2%, with the exception of the United States this year (2.5%), while that in developing countries would be around 4%. India (6.6% this year), Indonesia (5%) and China (4.8%) continue to lead the performance.
The Indian economy was supported by strong domestic demand, accompanied by a sharp increase in investments and robust activity in services, specifies the institution. Indonesia, meanwhile, is expected to benefit from a growing middle class that will drive the country’s growth.
Global inflation is expected to fall to 3.5% in 2024, then 2.9% in 2025. This decline is, however, lower than the forecasts established six months previously. Many central banks will be cautious in their monetary easing policy. As a result, global interest rates are expected to remain high at around 4% over the 2025-2026 period, approximately double the average rates recorded between 2000 and 2019.
Inequalities are increasing
The World Bank is concerned about growing inequalities: “One in four developing countries is expected to remain poorer this year than they were on the eve of the pandemic in 2019. And this proportion is twice as high for countries in situations of fragility and conflict.
The income gap separating developing and industrialized countries is expected to widen further in almost half of developing economies during the period 2020-2024. Thus, the per capita income of the latter should only increase by 3% per year on average until 2026, i.e. growth much lower than the rate of 3.8% recorded over the ten years preceding the pandemic.
In particular, public investment growth in developing countries has halved since the global financial crisis, averaging 5% per year over the past decade.
Costly climatic episodes
For Indermit Gill, in particular, “the economic forecasts are worrying for the poorest countries in the world, which also suffer from the heavy burden of servicing debt, restricted opportunities in terms of trade exchanges and the occurrence of costly climatic episodes.
Hence his call for international mobilization to replenish, by the end of the year, the resources of the International Development Association, the armed arm of the World Bank to help the 75 poorest countries in the world. planet.