Since the start of hostilities between the United States and Iran, the price of gold has fallen by around 20%, even though geopolitical risk reached a particularly high level. Even more surprising (gold is an asset considered a safe haven, Editor’s note): it rebounded upon the announcement of an agreement. In other words, gold did not react as the classic scenario would have suggested. This change is also seen in its volatility. Historically, this was lower than or comparable to that of the equity markets.
Since the end of 2025, and even more clearly since the Iranian crisis, the gap has widened. Depending on the calculation methods, gold has become approximately 1.5 times more volatile than equity markets, a level not seen since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. At the same time, the correlation with stocks has increased significantly: around 0.6 for gold with the CAC 40, compared to an average close to zero over a long period. Here again, the message is clear: gold remains a separate asset, but it behaves more like a market asset than before.
Gold, a refuge that has become more sensitive to market flows
How to explain it? Firstly by its liquidity. Gold is a global, deep, easily tradable asset. In times of tension, it can therefore be sought after, but also sold quickly. After the launch of the Epic Fury operation, profit taking was significant, in a context where the stock markets were also falling. Gold then served not only as a refuge, but also as a liquidity reserve.
Then, the yellow metal attracted new investors. The spectacular rise in gold prices since 2024 has increased the interest of individuals, while financial products backed by gold have developed, particularly in Asia. More monitoring, more arbitrage, more trading: mechanically, this can increase volatility. At the same time, central banks, which had been a regular and stabilizing source of purchases, slowed down their purchasing programs in the face of high prices. When this institutional demand weighs less, other components more sensitive to price, such as jewelry or private investment, regain importance.
We must also take into account a phenomenon of habituation. The markets have become accustomed to a more brutal environment: geopolitical tensions, commercial balance of power, unpredictable statements from Donald Trump. The risk remains high, but it is partly integrated into the prices. From then on, it is no longer just its intensity that counts, but its capacity to surprise, to worsen or to modify economic expectations. This can explain why gold no longer reacts mechanically to each episode of tension.
The re-correlation with stocks (CAC 40, etc., Editor’s note) is finally due to technical factors. The dynamics linked to artificial intelligence have carried the stock markets, sometimes beyond traditional economic variables. Conversely, the crisis around Hormuz has put inflation, rate expectations and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve back at the center of the game. Gold therefore found itself exposed to the same macroeconomic arbitrages as other asset classes.
Towards a return to fundamentals, for gold?
Should we see the end of exuberance? Maybe. The forecasts remain generally positive, but they are less unanimous and more nuanced. It’s pretty healthy. A market less dominated by hardcore buyers can find more robust balance points. Above all, this change could mark a return to fundamentals: inflation, real rates, money supply, budgetary policies.
The link between gold and real rates, blurred since 2024, could become central again. If the next big upward movement were to occur, it would perhaps be less linked to geopolitics alone than to deeper financial disorders: debt, currencies, credibility of economic policies. Gold has not lost its reserve status. But he reminds us that a refuge can also, sometimes, be a market.
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