We had already seen it, already lived. But this time the script is more violent, more unscrupulous, and perhaps even more dangerous. Donald Trump has returned to the scene, and he did it with his usual arsenal: slogans, muscles and rates. On April 2, a baptized date “Liberation Day”, triggered the storm: symmetrical duties against anyone who dares to touch the made in the USA. It is the second season of the commercial war, but with a much more fragile world than it was in 2018. The first effect was telluric. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng index collapsed by 13.22%: the worst seat from the Asian crisis of 1997. An shock wave started with Beijing, who responded with 34% duties on American goods, doubled at 50% on some sectors. It is the boomerang effect of a brake without brakes, which makes Trump’s doctrine seem more similar to that of Smoot and Hawley – the two senators who in 1930 put the world on their knees with the duties that filed the global economy – than to a modern strategy. Wall Street burned $ 5,380 billion in two sessions. And for once, finance reacted in real time, like a seismograph that records the arrival of a global shock. “The markets are doing only one thing: to slip towards a world recession,” warned George SaVelos of Deutsche Bank. Trump’s narrative is Chiara: “America First”, “Make America Great Again”, “Liberation with globalist constraints”. The reality is more multifaceted: its own companies, often with international supply chains, will be overwhelmed. Apple, Ford, Boeing, General Motors: all vulnerable. It is the paradox of American neo-protriation. And also its limit.
But has the world learned something from the first wave of duties? Little, apparently. The European Union is in the sights. Trump aims to hit 380 billion of European exports, from German beer to Dutch machinery. The new rates: 25% on food products, steel, aluminum, cars. Von der Leyen promises retaliation, but does not close the door to dialogue. However, the EU is divided: Paris and Berlin want to respond blow by blow. Rome, Budapest and Amsterdam prefer the diplomatic way. And Italy? He is watching. Or rather: try not to get too bad. Deputy Prime Minister Tajani said it clearly: «Treating, avoiding a commercial war. Italy will support the European Commission, but a common line is needed ». Meanwhile, the numbers worry. Federal food estimates a loss of 700-800 million euros only on agri-food exports. Pasta, oil, cheeses, wine: the flagship of Made in Italy risks large. Centromarca warns: 30% of US consumers will reduce Italian purchases. Coldiretti relaunches: the impact on American consumers will be 1.6 billion. And in the meantime, the phenomenon of Italian sounding grows: Parmisan, Tomato Sauce, fake products sold as authentic by mimicking Italian brands. America is no longer the center of gravity of an integrated global system. Or rather, it is still, but with new dynamics: unpredictable, unstable, cynical. The Financial Times is lapidary: «American protectionism is dismantling an economic order built in seventy years. He is more dangerous than the great depression ». Then there is the dark side of history: that of private interests that intertwine with politics. Trump has relaunched his society, the World Liberty Financial, entrusting it to his children. He launched a personal cryptocurrency. Makes profits with public decisions. The conflict of interest is served. But nobody, for now, can stop it.
The allies also tremble. Japan is affected by dice to 24%. Elon Musk invokes the end of this madness, and is shocked by the German minister Habeck: «He speaks out of fear. It is ridiculous ». The whole world is on the verge of a new order, or perhaps of chaos. And in this chaos, Europe is discovered once again unprepared. The economist Monticini is clear: «The duty is a tax on the consumer. Trump is taxing us too. But the chaos could force him to put back. The EU should accelerate on free trade agreements with other partners ». Trump’s “liberation day” risks becoming a global trap. The world is deglobalizing with slogans. But there is nothing liberating on this return to the past.
