Housing: François Bayrou’s dilemma

Free tribune

The real estate sector and the Minister of Housing hope to create a real tax status of the private lessor in the finance bill for 2026. Valérie Létard wants to start her work of conviction of Matignon. Henry BUZY-CAZAUX, president of the Institute of Real Estate Management, has no doubt that the status of the private rental investor will be created.

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This week, the Minister of Housing, Valérie Létard, brought together the stakeholders of private rental housing for three reasons, make a topical point on the situation of leaflet of rental investment in our country, to offer a simple and powerful remedy and call the managers of the sector to the most total cohesion. The approach is strong: while the two parliamentarians she commissioned to make a report on the subject, former Minister and Senator Marc-Philippe Daubresse and deputy Mickaël Cosson, still audition and will give their prescription before mid June, she wants to start her work of conviction of Matignon, Bercy and elected officials. It will be extremely difficult to win this victory in the budgetary context degraded to the highest point, constantly recalled by Prime Minister François Bayrou. 40 billion savings must be found without delay and the housing budget must contribute to its measure to this reduction in the deficit. The head of government will be torn between several considerations, which housing players can neither ignore nor pretend to ignore.

Our budgetary situation first has direct prejudice to housing: while the successive declines of master rate of the European Central Bank increased an landing around 2.5%, which would have resolved a high proportion of households excluded from the acquisition by inflation of the rates which occurred in 2023 and 2024, this decrease marks the step. For what? Because the other reference for the fixing of long rates, the OAT at ten years, has just dated 0.5 points because of our domestic economic situation, of course partly dependent on the world’s circumstances and the decisions of the American president, which unbalance world trade. We are more permanently than expected frozen around 3.2% interest rates. The government is first of all guaranteed that the gaze on our economy by global investors and rating agencies remains marked by a fairly high degree of confidence. For promoters, who resort to credit to launch their operations, for accessors such as investor households, rate control is major.

Terrible consequences on tax revenues

However, the news on the rental investment front are bad, at worst time: accession and primary accession are retreating and postpones on the rental market are far from being satisfied. The queues in the private rental park in the most attractive metropolitan and medium -sized cities, with between 30 and 200 requests for an offer. Professional mobility is slowed down, penalizing employment, reindustrialisation of the country such as the development of service activities throughout the territory. She also handicaps the competitiveness of France: one in two young people must give up higher studies of her choice for lack of accommodation in the target university city. To date, rental investments in the new have divided by six for two years, and have dropped by a third in the old one.

The consequences on the tax revenues of the State are terrible: 45,000 new dwellings sold less, in the order of 2.5 billion VAT less, and 40,000 existing dwellings for rental purposes that are missing for the call, it is a billion transfer rights less for departments essentially. Relaunching these investments by households, which are waiting for an honorable tax consideration is to restore these tax products in a few months. Ancient housing, in particular to be upgraded to energy decency standards, also lead to significant work, subject to reduced rate VAT of 5.5%. The key, the safeguarding and the creation of non -relocatable jobs, while the unemployment curve has once again reversed. Will Bercy and Matignon hear this logic? It will be necessary, in the interest of the country in all respects.

The status of the private rental investor will be created

What does the Minister want? The introduction of a long-term depreciation of property damping -20 years-, to stabilize the private rental stock, for 80% of the value of the property, the rest being presupposed to be the value of the field, the reintegration of depreciation in the calculation of capital gains, with maintenance of the abatements for the duration of detention. Finally, the rate could be 4% per year, increased to 5% in the event of an intermediate rent. The new and the old would be concerned, for new investments only. Readable, sustainable, universal. Do the actors make a unanimous welcome favorable to this copy? There is still a long way, but it is rare that such a large consensus is formed on a public measure as to the essentials, the logic of amortization and its main methods. The eyes of those who would like more will be disoriented by Matignon regarding the disturbing situation of France; The timid, affected by Stockholm syndrome towards Bercy, must understand that a breathless device will not awaken investor vocations, and the nuanced on what has been imagined by the Minister will prefer melée rather than making the team run the team to lose a vital match.

In short, everything will be played in the peak in the trebuchet that the time will come of by François Bayrou. The prejudices for France to abandon the rental offer are such and so heavy that the optimism of the sector is founded: the status of the private rental investor will be born.