Housing: why the increase in your insurance rates will exceed 10% in 2025

Home insurance premiums are expected to increase by 10 to 12% next year, according to forecasts from consulting firm Facts & Figures. Partly because of the increase in a national tax.

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Rarely have such increases been expected. In 2025, home insurance prices are expected to increase by 10 to 12%, Facts & Figures predicted on December 17. Forecasts already formulated in September, and which are maintained by the consulting firm. “The announcements made by Maif confirm our prediction”estimated Cyrille Chartier-Kastler, founder of Facts & Figures. Through its general director, Pascal Demurger, Maif estimated on France Info that insurers should increase their prices by 8 to 10% on average next year.

To begin with, the contribution under the natural disaster regime (the “CatNat” regime) will increase significantly on January 1st. The public natural disaster reinsurance scheme is financed by all policyholders under their damage guarantees. This contribution, in the form of additional premiums, will see its rate increase from 12% to 20% on all home contracts next year. Knowing that the “CatNat” contribution represents around 10% of the total premiums of policyholders, this increase will weigh between a third and half of the 10 to 12% forecast by Facts & Figures.

Storm, hail and snow weigh down insurers

But the future explosion in prices also has its origins in the intensity and frequency of storms, hail and snow. These events, not included in the “CatNat” regime, are therefore the sole responsibility of the insurers. Their cost reached 4.67 billion euros and 3.62 billion euros respectively in 2022 and 2023. The storms Eunice and Franklin in February, the hailstorms which took place from May to August and the Ciaran storms and November Domingos are examples. For comparison, the average cost of claims during the period from 2013 to 2021 is only 1 billion per year.

Consequence: insurers must face a significant deterioration in their results in this branch of insurance.“With the explosion of climate risk, the home multi-risk market has become significantly loss-making in 2023”pointed out Facts & Figures. Cumulatively, all the players suffered a loss of 1.46 billion euros last year, while this activity had a surplus of 232 million euros in 2021. And to make matters worse, over the last seven years , the cost of construction – and therefore repair – of buildings increased by 3.3% per year on average, compared to 2.3% for average inflation.

To make up for this deficit, insurers have no choice but to increase the level of contributions. It is possible that mutual societies – such as Maif or Macif -, bancassurance companies – Crédit Agricole or Banque Populaire-Caisse d’Epargne – are more tempted to sharply increase their rates, as they currently display contribution levels respectively 20% lower. % and 9% to the market average. An average largely driven by players using general agents: Axa or Allianz in particular. With a well-established strategy: “They do not hesitate to offer very competitive bonuses to acquire new customers before applying severe increases to them in the years that follow,” explained Cyrille Chartier-Kastler.