How far will the golden price go in 2025?

After a record year in 2024, gold continued its outbreak and could reach new heights in 2025. But how far could its course climb? Review of different forecasts.

It is a good vein that does not seem to run out. In 2024, gold was among the best investments of the year (just behind Bitcoin), with a 34% outbreak of its value. Record steering wheel in record, the Once d’Or – about 28 grams – reached a new high historical point this Wednesday, February 19, at 2,833 euros (2,947.01 dollars). Or a progression of 8.33%already, since January 1, better, for the time being, than the S&P 500 (+4.22%), or Bitcoin (+2.61%).

But how can we explain that the Gold course continues to climb, after an already record year in 2024? For Ignacio Sainz Iglesias, Deputy Managing Director at Veracash, “The world’s gold needs do not weaken, while the amount available is limited”. A differential between supply and demand which mechanically increases the price of precious metal. And this gold rush should not weaken in 2025, because three factors continue to supply demand.

Gold demand should not weaken worldwide

First, purchases from central banks, “In particular on the side of emerging countries, which are thus trying to reduce their dependence on the US dollar, by replacing it with gold”explains Ignacio Sainz Iglesias. A strategy notably applied by China: “With less than 6% of its gold exchange reserves, China’s allowance remains relatively low compared to other major economic powers. It should therefore continue to buy gold in large quantities in the coming years ”details Nitesh Shah, head of raw materials and macroeconomic research at Wisdomtree, in its 2025 perspectives for gold.

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Then, the cycle of drop in guiding rates started by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the American Federal Reserve (Fed) should also boost gold demand. Indeed, when the rates drop, the remuneration of risk -free products (booklets, term accounts) decreases, which pushes savers to other investments considered without risk, such as gold. Finally, the maintenance of geopolitical tensions on the scale of the globe could also play in its favor, in particular the establishment of customs tariffs, which “Should push prices to import and therefore inflation for the end consumer, (which) risks slowing growth, and strengthening the attraction of yellow metal”notes the National Comptoir de l’Or, in its monthly report in January 2025. When prices climb, gold indeed becomes a refuge value, because investors consider that its value will remain the same, or even increase with the years, While the value of their heritage decreases.

A new year to 30% increase?

Put on end to end, these factors lead to a relative consensus on a new progression of the gold price in 2025. But how far? 20 of the 26 analysts from London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) – Association which delivers the official rating of gold – expect to see the course touch or exceed the 3,000 dollars an ounce This year. A new record that only seems to be a stone’s throw away, since the course of the ounce reached nearly $ 2,950 on February 19. According to Ignacio Sainz Iglesias, the proximity of this new record so early in the year “Pushed analysts to review their upward perspectives”. Thus, on February 17, the Goldman Sachs bank noted its end -of -year prospect of 3,100 dollars (2,976 euros) in $ 3,300 (3,168 euros), “If political uncertainty – especially concerning customs tariffs – remain strong”.

In a scenario where all the bullish factors are accumulated – lower rates that continues despite high inflation and increased geopolitical risks -, the WisdomTree’s asset manager even anticipates an ounce of gold 3,450 dollars (3,312 euros) by the fourth quarter of 2025. An optimistic scenario which would make gold ending again the year with a performance greater than 30% (+30.96%).