Belgium is not immune to the polarization of the political spectrum observed in many European countries. After the legislative elections of June 9 (which take place at the same time as the European and regional elections), the first three parties in the House of Representatives could be “radical” parties.
The largest contingent of deputies could go to Vlaams Belang, a Flemish far-right, secessionist party, credited with one seat in six (26 out of 150). The second force would be the N-VA (Neo-Flemish Alliance), a nationalist party which advocates for a confederal Belgium – without clearly defining the term. In third position seems to emerge the radical left party PTB, which has experienced strong growth in Wallonia and the Brussels-Capital region since 2019.
Suffice to say that in this constellation, the coalition in power since 2020 (known as Vivaldi in reference to the colors of its four political families which recall the four seasons) should no longer have a majority (76 seats). It could certainly be maintained with the support of the Engagés, a French-speaking center-right party which appeals to the disappointed environmentalists, predicted to be in sharp decline.
Head of Government
But Vivaldi’s partners seem reluctant to continue their partnership. A more likely scenario would bring together the socialists, the Christian Democrats, the liberals, and the N-VA… Which, a priori, would imply the arrival of the leader of the nationalist party, Bart De Wever (mayor of Antwerp), in the 16 rue de la Loi, seat of the Prime Minister. He has already indicated that he does not envisage participation in the federal government without taking the helm.
During a televised debate on VRT last Tuesday, the outgoing Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo, conceded that it would be “logical” to have as head of the executive the representative of the first party in the House (the Vlaams Belang is isolated by a sanitary cordon). The Flemish liberal, however, warned: “But we must not start getting lost in state reforms which will lead to years of stagnation. If it’s about making our country stronger, yes. If it’s about immobilizing our country, no. »
Participation of the nationalist Flemish
The N-VA sits in the European Parliament within the ECR group of Eurosceptic and sovereignist groups. At the European Council, the arrival of Bart De Wever would bring the number of leaders in this bloc to three (with Giorgia Meloni in Italy and Petr Fiala in the Czech Republic). The N-VA already participated in the federal government from 2014 to 2018 in a so-called “Swedish” coalition led by the French-speaking liberal Charles Michel.
According to Benjamin Briard, from Crisp (Center for Sociopolitical Research and Information), “any coalition without the N-VA would be exposed to strong criticism of the under-representation of the Flemish within it. “It was already one of the Vivaldi’s weaknesses.” Regarding the identity of the Prime Minister, the political scientist believes that “the configuration that is coming seems very difficult, the games are very open”. In any case, no one in Belgium thinks they will see a coalition formed before the municipal and provincial elections next October.
Public finances under pressure
By then, the European Commission will have initiated an excessive deficit procedure against Belgium, because the kingdom’s public finances have slipped over the past five years. According to the Commission, the deficit will amount to 4.4% of GDP this year and could even rise to 4.7% next year. The debt represents 105% of national wealth and could exceed 106% in 2025.
The Vivaldi proved to be expensive, which certainly kept growth at a decent level. But the EU this year adopted a new Stability Pact which, while more flexible than before, retains the old deficit ceiling of 3% of GDP. Paul Magnette, leader of the French-speaking Socialist Party, recently commented: “We will not be able to apply European budgetary rules. They are unworkable and I think even those who designed them know it. »