![In Brussels, negotiations began to renew the coalition alliance In Brussels, negotiations began to renew the coalition alliance](https://media.lesechos.com/api/v1/images/view/66672ccb2004ba1812413039/1280x720/0703018277825-web-tete.jpg)
Starting this Monday evening, conservative heads of state and government affiliated with the EPP (European People’s Party) are meeting remotely to discuss the results of the European elections. They can be pleased that their group has a total of 185 deputies, more than a quarter of the seats in the hemicycle (720). The PPE group, with good results in Germany, Spain and Poland, has regained ground after an erosion of more than fifteen years.
Negotiations immediately began between the groups of the outgoing majority, known as “von der Leyen” named after the President of the European Commission (EPP), who is seeking a second term and has a good chance of obtaining it.
Low margin
The three coalition partners, socialists from the S&D, centrists from Renew and EPP, want to set the terms for a renewal of their alliance. They total 401 MEPs, according to figures that have not yet been completely stabilized.
This is above the majority of 361 seats, but the margin of safety seems small, given the volatility of the European assembly. Manfred Weber, leader of the EPP group, did not mention a possible extension of the alliance to the Greens, who in the last legislature may have lacked reliability.
Political priorities
The socialists and centrists, for their part, immediately refuse to work with the two radical right groups, ECR and ID, which have 131 seats, not counting the German AfD or the Hungarian Fidesz, today without affiliation.
In a hemicycle that has shifted to the right, the three groups of the outgoing majority will have to agree on their priorities. While the Greens have lost around twenty seats, one of the questions that arises is the pursuit of an ambitious environmental agenda.
Questions about the Green Deal
At the end of the ninth legislature, the EPP, which sought to pose as the defender of the agricultural world and industrialists, blocked or emptied of their substance “green” texts. What, now that it is reinforced, raises questions about the sustainability of the Green Deal, this vast plan for decarbonization of the economy.
Will the new Parliament want to go back? Pascal Canfin, one of the architects of the Green Deal as president of the Envi Commission, does not think so. “There is no majority to dismantle the Green Deal,” he assures. It only takes 30 to 40 EPP MPs to oppose it for this not to happen. »
Role of France
Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly also raises many questions, since the scenario of cohabitation of the President of the Republic with the RN is now credible.
The Head of State will in any case remain alone in charge for the development with his counterparts of the EU’s strategic agenda for the 2024-2029 cycle and the designation of European “top jobs”, between now and the end of June. In the event of cohabitation from the summer, he will continue to sit alone on the European Council which sets EU strategy.
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Cohabitations
As for the development of French positions in European legislative negotiations, the equation would be different. The key institution, the SGAE (General Secretariat for European Affairs, responsible for interministerial cooperation), reports to the Prime Minister. There would therefore be a modus operandi to be defined, in the absence of texts precisely governing the distribution of roles.
“During the three previous cohabitations, two with François Mitterrand, one with Jacques Chirac, the balances had been different each time,” indicates an expert in European affairs.
European circles are observing with great interest the evolution of the political scene in Paris. Some MEPs see the dissolution of the Assembly as a “Europeanization of French political life”. In the sense that most member states operate with parliamentary coalitions that are increasingly complex to build and therefore fragile.