![In Germany, severe defeat for Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition In Germany, severe defeat for Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition](https://media.lesechos.com/api/v1/images/view/6665eb6aaf10285f3a79e8d9/1280x720/01101759790770-web-tete.jpg)
It is a slap in the face for Olaf Scholz’s coalition and confirmation of the clear domination of the traditional right on the German political scene. At the end of the European elections, the Christian Democrats and their Bavarian allies in the CSU received 30.3% of the vote, clearly ahead of all the other parties in the country.
The three parties in the ruling coalition come far behind. Led to Germany by Katarina Barley, an uncharismatic head of the list and weakly supported by Olaf Scholz, the Social Democratic Party recorded the worst score in its history, with 13.9% of the votes (-1.9 points). “It’s a very hard result for us,” admitted Kevin Kuhnert, the party’s general secretary.
A statement of failure
It is also a failure for Olaf Scholz’s strategy. Anxious not to upset a fairly pacifist social-democrat electorate, the leader had chosen to position himself as a “chancellor of peace”, with a slogan, “Guarantee peace”, very present on the electoral posters.
But the poor score of the social democrats is nothing compared to the Greens, who are suffering a real berezina.
While they were still the second party in the country during the 2019 European elections, with 20.5% of the vote, German environmentalists fell to 11.9%, penalized by the unpopularity of the heating law presented last year by the Minister of the Economy and Climate, Robert Habeck, and the gradual elimination of certain aid to farmers.
“This is not a result we can be satisfied with,” admitted party co-president Omid Nouripour soberly.
Save the furniture
The Liberals, the third component of the coalition, are even further behind, with a slightly lower score, at 5% of the vote. The party is saving the furniture, probably supported by the celebrity of its head of list, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann.
A divisive personality, who has continued to criticize the pusillanimity of Olaf Scholz in the Ukrainian conflict and to plead for an increase in German military support for kyiv.
The far right ranks second
Despite the major demonstrations against the far right at the start of the year and the serial scandals caused by Maximilian Krah, the party’s head list in the European elections, the “Alternative für Deutschland” (Alternative for Germany) party obtained 16 % of votes (+5 points compared to 2019) and ranks second.
After losing ground compared to the start of the year, it undoubtedly benefited from the Islamist attack committed in Mannheim at the end of May, which led to the death of a police officer.
The European elections also mark the emergence on the German political scene of the far-left anti-immigrant party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which won 6% of the vote, significantly more than the liberals. His former party, “Die Linke”, (The Left) obtained 2.7%.
A barometer for German parties
Unlike Bundestag elections, there is no minimum threshold to cross in Germany to be represented in the European Parliament. Across the Rhine, more than 1,400 candidates from 35 parties and groups were in the running and for the first time, voters aged 16 and 17 could participate in the European elections.
In total, nearly 65 million people were called to the polls, including more than four million citizens of other European Union countries.
A fragmentation of the political landscape
At the end of the European election, the fragmentation of the German political landscape is confirmed with a traditional right which now weighs twice as much as the social democratic party.
Under these conditions, the conservatives will necessarily have to come to an agreement with a third partner, after the legislative elections in autumn 2025. This will then make compromises more difficult and encourage a certain inertia. Both in Germany and in European politics.
The European elections are a barometer for German parties but they are less important than the regional elections which will be held in September, in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg.
A test for the conservative strategy
For German conservatives, this will be a key moment to know whether the shift to the right initiated by party leader Friedrich Merz can counter the rise of the far right in the eastern Lander. In these regions, the AfD is leading the race according to polls. Reducing its influence is a strategic priority.