The figures for the first quarter of 2026 published in mid-May by the FPI are new. Less than 20,000 new housing sold, representing a decline in reservations of 14.3%. Sales to individuals fell by 11%, bulk sales to social landlords by 35%. The only indicator on the rise, sales to investors increased by 22.8% but on low volumes, 3,049 transactions in total. Of this figure, barely a few hundred fall under the system Jeanbrunwhich entered into force on February 21.
The gap with Pinel’s promises is striking. The FPI hoped 4,000 sales per month in Jeanbrun to match the 60,000 annual sales that the old Pinel system generated. Several readings are now opposed. The economic press speaks of a flop, pointing to faulty communication and an overly complex mechanism, amortization rather than a direct tax reduction. Pascal Boulanger, president of the FPI since July 1, 2021challenges this analysis and names a very different culprit.
Seven days between Jeanbrun and the war, the bad coincidence
The timeline is relentless. On February 21, 2026, the Jeanbrun system comes into force after months of lobbying. THE February 28, 2026, seven days later, Donald Trump declared war on Iran. The first week of March is catastrophic for the accommodation nine. “The device made flop because of the armed conflict, it was translated by the device is a flop, it is not at all the same thing”says Pascal Boulanger. Its formula summarizes the analysis gap. “It’s not the driver who’s bad, it’s the car that broke down.”
Decisive argument put forward by the president of the FPI, “the figures are also falling for owner-occupiers, even though the Jeanbrun system does not concern them. This is proof that the problem does not come from the device.”he insists. The 11% decline in sales to individualswhich brings together buyers in main residence And investors excluding Jeanbrunvalidates this reading. The decline affects the entire walknot a specific segment.
The FPI draws on the experience of past crises to explain the wait-and-see attitude. In 1990 (Gulf War), in 2020 (Covid), in 2022 (Ukraine), in 2026 (Middle East)… each conflict or systemic shock produced the same effects on real estate investment. “Investors, whoever they are, owner-occupiers or investors, are not inclined to make long-term investments in times of crisis. They are waiting”recalls Pascal Boulanger. Buy a property implies committing to fifteen to twenty years, a dissuasive horizon when the immediate future remains illegible.
The system holds, but improvements are required
For Pascal Boulanger, Jeanbrun remains a good device. Two adjustments could, however, be made without a finance law. First, openness to rentals to an ascendant or descendant leaving the tax household, as in Pinel. “Few people use it, but many are happy to know they can use it. Psychologically, it is a very important device”he pleads. Second, the integration of individual houses alongside collective apartments, which are currently the only eligible apartments.
Three other improvements, however, imply a future finance law. The FPI proposes to raise the depreciation rate currently set at 3.5%, 4.5% and 5.5% depending on the rent levels, increasing to 4%, 5% and 6%. She also calls for a doubling of the attributable deficit ceiling on other income, from €10,700 to €21,400, already accepted in thermal renovation. Finally, the total deficit ceiling could be raised beyond the current €8,000. These developments are partly in line with the bill submitted by Valérie Létard end of April.
There remains the question of the restart schedule. Pascal Boulanger does not venture to predict a rapid recovery. “If I have to continue with my metaphor of the broken down car, pFor the car to be able to work – in short, for the new real estate market to take off again – the war must stop. And I guarantee you that the day the war ends, everything will start again. The price of gasoline will fall, interest rate will drop, people will be less worried.” Beyond the economic situation, the sector is observing a erosion structurally more worrying. According to Guillaume Martinaud, president of the Orpi network, 25% of customers declaring investors disappeared in four years. A tax depreciation complex will not be enough to bring them back, whatever the end of the war.
The Jeanbrun system is a tax depreciation applicable to rental investments in new homes, which entered into force on February 21, 2026 and intended to replace the Pinel system stopped on December 31, 2024. The figures cited come from the FPI’s National Statistical Observatory for new housing, representing 90% of the market. Changes to the system (depreciation rates, ceilings) remain subject to modification in a future finance law. Before any investment, the support of a wealth or tax advisor is recommended.
