The lull is confirmed on the inflation front at the end of 2025. According to the provisional estimate from INSEE, published this Friday, October 31, consumer prices are increasing by only 1% in Octoberafter a slight rebound to 1.2% in September. A trend in line with projections from the Banque de France which estimates that total inflation (HICP) will fall to 1% over the whole of 2025, after 2.3% in 2024.
Good news, but which risks weighing on the remuneration of regulated savings accounts, and in particular the Popular Savings Account (LEP), the rate of which will be revised on February 1. As a reminder, the latter’s return is strictly indexed to the average inflation excluding tobacco over the six months preceding its revision. For the next deadline, the period concerned will therefore extend from July to December 2025.
A few weeks before Christmas, the LEP rate smells like a tree
However, inflation for four of these six months is now known: +0.9% in July, +0.8% in August, +1.2% in September, and +1% (provisional estimate) in October. The average over these first four months therefore amounts to 0.975%. By projecting the Banque de France’s estimate of 1% for the last two months of the year (November and December), the six-month average would stand at 0.983%.
By applying the strict formula literally (rounded to the nearest tenth of a point), the theoretical rate of the LEP could thus land… at 1% at the start of 2026. Quite a blow, when we know that it was still paid at 3.5% at the start of the year, and at 2.7% since August 1, which already constituted a significant fall.
However, as with its latest revision, the final LEP rate will not depend only on the average inflation, but also on the Livret A rate. Indeed, under the decree of January 27, 2021, the LEP rate must always be higher than that of the Livret A, increased by 0.5 points. However, for now, the Livret A rate is expected at 1.5% for February 1. An anticipation which would thus give a floor rate of 2% (1.5 + 0.5) for the LEP. That is to say a drop of 0.7% compared to its current rate.
In addition, this remuneration could benefit from a new “boost” from the Banque de France and Bercy – as during its last revisions. The final decision will be made in mid-January, after the latest inflation data and the recommendations of the governor of the Bank of France.
