Soon the end of the suspense. One thing is certain: the yield of the popular savings book (LEP) will be well revised down on August 1. But how far will it fall? According to provisional data communicated by INSEE this Friday, June 27, consumer prices have increased by 0.9% in June. At this stage, it is therefore possible to calculate the average inflation over the past six months.
However, it is this average that makes it possible to determine the rate of LEP: the latter is still equal to the average inflation outside tobacco over the six months preceding its revision. Thus, with the figures for June, the data series is now complete: after 1.6% inflation in January, 0.7% in February and March, 0.8% in April, then 0.6% in May and 0.9% in June, the average comes out at 0.88%. Rounded in the upper tenth, the LEP rate should therefore pass – if we stick to the calculation rule – from 3.5% currently to 0.9% on August 1, a division by almost four!
A 0.9% free fall rate?
Fortunately for modest income savers, such a brutal fall is not possible. Two safeguards are indeed protecting LEP holders. First protection: the LEP rate cannot be lower than that of the booklet has increased by 0.5 points. This principle is enshrined in a decree of January 27, 2021. However, the rate of booklet A should be lowered to 1.7% on August 1. This means that the LEP rate will not be able to descend under the 2.2%.
Second possibility: a voluntary derogation from the formula. The Governor of the Banque de France and the Minister of the Economy have already used this option in the last four revisions. Last February, for example, the LEP rate was maintained at 3.5% while the formula led to a rate of 2.9%. Answer in mid-July, when the final inflation figures for the month of June will be known.
