Pensions: Is the deficit 6 billion euros or 55 billion?

The pension system deficit should be 6.6 billion euros this year, calculated the Court of Auditors. But the State will also pay more than 42 billion euros, not recorded, to balance the retirement plans of its officials.

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The question regularly returns to the carpet and is the subject of all fantasies. The regimes of civil servants would produce substantial deficits for the pension system, “hidden” for some and which should be exhumed. Make all the transparency on this point, to know if the deficits of the regimes of the public service must yes or not to be counted with those of the other pension plans, such was the mission entrusted by the Prime Minister, François Bayrou, at the court of Accounts, before the social partners met “in conclave”, to try to amend the reform of 2023 and its transition from the retirement age to 64 years.

It is true that state officials have no retirement fund proper, like all other French people. It is the state pensions service that covers civilian officials, magistrates and soldiers. It is difficult to understand, but here we consider that, by nature, this device is balanced: each year, the State finances this regime with a contribution of balance. It puts to the pot what it takes for the diet to be balanced, regardless of the necessary amount. This amount is annexed each year to the state budget in a document called “the case”. So there is nothing secret there. In 2023, the balance of balance for state officials amounted to 45 billion euros. The State also participates in the balance of 17 special regimes (RATP, SNCF, etc.) for just under 8 billion euros in 2023.

Problem, as the state pension service is not a real pension plan (which would count its resources, expenses and balance), it is not counted either in the calculations of the guidance council of Pensions (COR), organization attached to Matignon which each year calculates the balance of the French pension system and its projections.

Official regime subsidies weigh on public finances

One thing is certain, these public service regimes are severely in the red. The question is then whether they should be taken into account in the calculation of the overall deficit of the pension system or not. Traditionally, it is estimated that not. But this time, François Bayrou wanted to shed light on this point, since even if accountingly we cannot add everything, intellectually, this is conceived. Especially to have a consolidated vision of deficits due to pensions on all public finances, which are not very guyes. During his declaration of general policy of January 14, he himself estimated the deficit of pensions at 55 billion euros for 2025, when the Cor estimates it to just over 11 billion euros (-0, 4% of the gross domestic product) …

The Court of Auditors responsible for doing the calculations did not integrate the balance subsidy in the pensions deficit (the two being “difficult to compare”, she says), but it notes that in any event, the 42 billion euros in equilibrium subsidies paid in 2023 (35 billion for state officials) “Are charges that weigh on public finances” “. Conclusion, the deficit of the pension system should reach 6.6 billion euros in 2025, 15 billion in 2035 and 30 billion in 2045, knowing that on the state, the State pays more than 40 billion euros each year for balance the diets of the public service.