The European Central Bank (ECB) left its rates unchanged, after its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, July 24. A first in the space of a year Since she had continued to lower them until then, according to the slowdown in inflation. What will be the consequences of this change of gear on the rates of real estate credits, whose evolution is partly influenced by that of the rates of the ECB, from which banks refinance?
In reality, mortgage rates are already stable since Juneafter having dropped by approximately one point between their peak at more than 4% at the end of 2023 and spring 2025. In this month of July, rates thus emerged to 3.15% over 20 years, on average, and to 3.25% over 25 years, according to the Council finance broker. Rates corresponding to the average of the last 25 years, notably from the exceptional period from 2019 to 2021, with rates included of around 1%.
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An average rate of 3.11% in 2025
The break decided by the ECB on Thursday should have less impact on the rates of real estate loans in the coming weeks since the institution should redirect its own at the start of the school year, according to several market analysts. “We are going to have a rate 3.11% (all loan periods combined) on average throughout the year 2025 ”thus estimated professor of economics Michel Mouillart, during a press conference of the Crédit Housing Observatory, on July 17, tabling on “3.05% at the end of 2025”.
He said he was on the other hand Less optimistic for 2026due to an environment “Worrying politico-economic” In France. Low growth, increase in unemployment, degraded public finances, government under the threat of opposition censorship in favor of examining the finance bill for 2026 … This should not reassure institutional investors and lead them to demand better remuneration to lend money to France on the financial markets.
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Rates in 2026
The rate of the OAT (assimilable bond of the Treasury) at 10 years went from 3.24% in early July to 3.35% this Thursday. “A shadow on the board”suits the borrowed broker. Indeed, it is also on the basis of the OAT rate at 10 years that banks, which are also refinance in the markets, determine the rates of their real estate credits. However, lending 3.15% when you borrow on the markets at 3.25% means losing money. Michel Mouillart therefore predicts a “Raising mortgage rates in 2026, possibly 3.40% at the end of next year “.
