Real estate credit: first rate increases in February, what impact for borrowers?

According to brokers interviewed by capital, most banks leave their mortgage rates unchanged for February, after 14 months of decline. Rare establishments have still increased them.

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That the contenders forownership reassure themselves, “We cannot yet talk about the ascent of mortgage rate»»Ensures Capital Sandrine ALLONIER, spokesperson for youfinance. Just a week ago, however, the real estate brokerage sector was rumoring rumors of rates, after a continuous drop of 14 months which brought them to 3.30% on average over 20 years in January, against more than 4 % a year earlier. At the origin of these rumors: the increase in the rate of the OAT (assimilable bond of the Treasury) at 10 years, required by international investors to lend France in the financial markets, which was tutying 3.5% due of the political instability of the country and fears of a return of inflation under the effect of the protectionist measures of Donald Trump. The rate of the OAT at 10 years is indeed one of the main elements on which banks are based to establish their mortgage rates.

“We feel a very present conflict between the financial services and the commercial services of the banks, the first advising them to start to raise their rates (to preserve their profitability) and the second advocating a prosecution of the decline, taking into account their important credit production objectives For the year “decrypt Pascal Courtois, responsible for the banking relationship at Artémis Courtage.

Most mortgage rates remain unchanged

Certainly, Some banks have raised their rates Real estate for February, compared to January, indicates Sandrine Allonier. A large national bank has thus increased them by 0.17 points on average, but by only 0.10 points for the youngest borrowers, a sign of its desire to continue to finance these profiles. A second noted its rates of 0.10 point, a third of 0.20 point, a fourth of only 0.05 points, and only for the least property borrowers endowed in savings.

Others continued to lower their rates, starting with SG (ex-general and North Credit), which brought them back to 2.99% On all credit periods and for all profiles, from February 1 to 28, in order to win new customers, on the eve of the “Real estate spring”, the season usually the most favorable to the purchase of a house or apartment. And this, while the bank “Already offered among the lowest rates on the marketunderlines Maël Bernier, Director of Bestaux Communication. This had to surprise the competition, which undoubtedly hesitated to carry out rate increases. The bulk of the banking market thus leaves its stable mortgage rates for February ”.

Sustainable rates below 3% in the second half?

“The rate increases are light and remain isolated»»confirms Sandrine Allonier. However, they are not trivial insofar as “We hadn’t seen it for a year”nuance Maël Bernier. And are these rate recovery not likely to become widespread in the coming weeks or the coming months? “It is possible if there is a new censorship government. It would not be good for the image of France with international investors ”which could make the OAT again flambé at 10, recognizes Sandrine Allonier. However, the Prime Minister decided to activate article 49.3 of the Constitution on Monday, to have the finance bill for 2025 adopted and the first part of the social security budget without the vote of the Parliament. This exposes him to censorship by the latter, as had been the case in early December for the Barnier government.

But Pascal Courtois wants to be reassuring: “The European Central Bank (ECBwith which the banks are in part financed, editor’s note) expressed his desire to continue to lower his rates at least until the summer ”. Lases that banks should logically pass on their mortgage rates. Pascal Courtois therefore does not exclude that mortgage rates set up “More sustainably under 3% from the second half of 2025”.