Real estate credit: rates will continue to fall in 2025, find out how far

Real estate loan rates, which fell by one point on average in 2024, are expected to continue to fall in 2025, according to the broker Pretto. The best profiles can hope to borrow at very attractive rates.

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The horizon is brightening for borrowers. After a year 2024 marked by a drop in mortgage rates of almost one point on average, the situation should improve further in 2025 for future buyers. “The lights are at green for borrowers at the start of the year, all the conditions are in place for mortgage rates to continue to fall in 2025, even if the decline will probably be less marked than last year», Rejoices Pierre Chapon, co-founder of the real estate loan broker Pretto, who presented his predictions for 2025 to the press this Thursday, January 23.

Several indicators indeed suggest that real estate loan rates will continue to fall in 2025. First, the key rates of the European Central Bank (ECB) should continue to decline in the coming months, with the clear slowdown in inflation. . They could fall by 0.75 points to 1 point this year, according to the predictions of the majority of specialists. Consequently, the cost of money will at the same time fall for banks, which finance themselves mainly by borrowing from the ECB. Banking establishments should therefore logically pass on this drop to their customers’ real estate loan rates in the coming months.

Rates of 2.5% for the best profiles?

Especially since banks have revised their real estate loan production targets upwards in 2025, and are looking to win over new customers. “The real estate loan market is expected to grow by 10 to 15% in 2025, banks are fighting to attract the best profiles and competition will be increased compared to 2025continues Pierre Chapon. This competition will logically push credit rates down.” A sign that banks have reopened the credit tap, more and more of them are offering attractive commercial offers at the beginning of the years, including subsidized rates (reduced compared to those on the market), in order to attract young professionals and first-time buyers.

Other good news for borrowers, zero rate loan (PTZ) could be extended to the entire territory for first-time buyers in 2025, once the State budget has been voted on.

As a reminder, this system allows certain households, subject to income conditions, to benefit from an additional interest-free loan of up to 100,000 euros for the acquisition of a main residence. However, according to Pretto, the inclusion of a zero-interest loan in the financing of a real estate purchase lowers the overall credit rate by around 1% for borrowers.

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It remains to be seen to what extent this favorable situation will push mortgage rates downward. According to Pretto’s predictions, rates could fall on average by 0.5 points by the end of 2025. The best profiles could even borrow at less than 2.5%, classic profiles at 2.7%. and the worst profiles around 3%. “The rate differences offered by banks between the best profiles and the worst will be more marked than in previous years, this is explained by the increased competition between banking establishments which are fighting to attract the best profiles», concludes Pierre Chapon.