Speculations are going well on the life of the Bayrou government. Will he go into the fall and the presentation of the budget in Parliament? The Prime Minister chose to anticipate in two ways: first by holding a press conference on July 15 to report on the state of the deficit and present its budgetary guidelines, and inaugurating a dedicated channel on YouTube, FB direct. He expressed himself in a didactic way in the face of the French to simply explain his choices intended to reduce our abyssal public deficit.
The least we can be that the announcement of austerity measures was not unanimous … except perhaps almost unanimity against. The polls bear witness to a popularity rating in full tumble. Speaking directly and clearly to the nation during the summer will improve the situation? Not sure. Especially since if the French have no ulterior motives but just want to save their achievements and refuse the efforts requested, still considering that they are inequitable and that others must be put to use, political groups in the National Assembly are likely to be more calculating … The extremes may want to assert themselves and moderate parties may not remain so.
THE Budget cancer of the country Will not be cured by the dismissal of the doctor who establishes the prescription, but will the French and their representatives in Parliament have the common sense to admit it? The probability, according to political scientists, is low. It is therefore necessary to wonder already about the consequences on real estate and the accommodation of a government censorship in place.
To put it rustically, there are two. First the desirable and arbitrated measures in favor of housing will not be voted since the finance bill for 2026 will not be. Mechanically, the budget, assuming that it is modified by a new government, will not be voted before February … The prerequisites are difficult, the appointment of a new Prime Minister – laborious after the departure of Michel Barnier, it will take up the challenge next time – and the appointment of a new government. The deprivation project for private rental investments will be weakened, if not called into question. All that for that. What will be the envelope of Maprimerenov ‘? Will we not come back to the change in calculation of the DPE from January 1, 2026, which brought out the status of energy coland 850,000 dwellings?
If the government falls, interest rates will soar
For dark as these political forecasts be, they are not the worst. The worst consequence came out with regard to the financial markets on our country: if the National Assembly brought the government to fall on its budgetary orthodoxy project, France will be appreciated as unfit to initiate the rectification efforts which it must initiate and incapable of institutional stability. Interest rates, which account for the confidence that economic observers melt in us, will go up. The risk of 50 or 100 basic points (0.5% or 1% more) is far from being excluded. Very bad news for the real estate market.
Clearly, now is the time to buy as to sell: the ease of finding a buyer is greater when the credit conditions he will have access is better. Today they allow sellers today to have to lower their price to absorb part of the cost of the buyer’s debt. Moreover, the fall of the government and the institutional disorder that would follow could create other shocks. A shock on the valuesthat we are tempted to find happy for buyers … but who can also retract the market, worried sellers handing over their reinvestment project to more serene days. It is to be hoped that the Bayrou government will be invested in confidence, that our country is recovering and that our interest rates reported to our neighbors, especially Germany, be competitive. Nevertheless, in deep doubt as to this outcome, households would be well inspired to hasten their research and to conclude without delay.
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