It is unheard of for at least 15 years : This Tuesday, September 9, France borrows (a little) more expensive than Italy on the financial markets. The yield of the OAT (assimilable bond of the Treasury) at 10 years, that is to say the rate at which major international investors agree to lend to the country, amount to 3.48%against 3.47% for that of Italy, hitherto considered one of the worst European students in terms of public debt. The consequence of the fall of the Bayrou government, which leads the financial markets to judge the debt of France more risky than before.
Do you think it only concerns you from afar? If you project a real estate purchase, think again. “The increase in long rates on the markets is likely to repercussions on bank credit rates and block the real estate market again ”worries Elodie Frémont, spokesperson for the notaries of Grand Paris, during a quarterly economic situation, this Tuesday. The evolution of OAT’s yield at 10 years is indeed one of the main indicators examined by banks, which are partially financed in the financial markets, to set their mortgage rates. Rates between 3.05% and 3.45% in early September, according to credit times.
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Rates at 3.40% in 2026?
If the banks keep them at these levels, while they are now borrowing on the markets at 3.48%, they will lose money. “It cannot stay long like that and it is an old banker who tells you”warns Aga Bojarska-Serres, Deputy Director General of the Bestaux broker. Some banks have already increased their rates at the end of August, in the wake of an OAT at 10 years old who had jumped after François Bayrou announced his intention to request a vote of confidence of the deputies. “We expect a slight increase in rates by the end of 2025, in a range of 3.25% to 3.5% for credit periods aged 20 to 25 »prognostic Thomas Lefebvre, vice-president of selogging in charge of data. For 2026, the Credit Observatory Housing Tables on rates to 3.40% On average, all durations combined.
Admittedly, after the shock of the dissolution of the National Assembly, just over a year ago, the rise in the OAT rate at 10 years “Had not had an impact on mortgage rates”Recalls Sandrine Allonier, spokesperson for Toufinancer. “But the context is very different today”she immediately nuance. First of all because in June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB), to which banks are also refinanced, had just lowered its rates for the first time in a long time. After eight rate drops in one year and an inflation, it is likely that the ECB leaves them stable At its meeting this Thursday, September 11, as in July.
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Banks that have fulfilled their annual objectives
Then, in June 2024, after two years of a real estate crisis caused by the outbreak of credit rates, “The objective of the banks was to lend at attractive rates” In order to regain market share on this call product that is housing credit, recalls Sandrine Allonier. The situation is very different today because the amount of new real estate credits granted in July, at the highest since the beginning of 2023suggests that most banks have already fulfilled their annual production objectives. Useless, therefore, for them, to lower their rates to attract new borrowers …
