Real estate: how prices will evolve in 2025 if credit rates go up (or stagnate)

At the beginning of February, most banks offer stable mortgage rates compared to January, ending 14 months of decline. Some even noted them a little. On the price side, what will you expect?

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THE mortgage rate For the month of February mark a breakup After 14 months of continuous decline. “Most banks offer stable rates compared to January. Some have even started to raise them, certainly on the fringes but that had not happened for more than a year “indicates to Capital Maël Bernier, director of communication of broker Better. But it’s the decrease of more than one point Credit rates in the space of one year, to 3.30% on average over 20 years, which allowed candidates for ownership to realize purchase projects put to sleep by quadrupling of rate between early 2022 and late 2023.

“In our network, sales of old housing fell 8% in 2024 but this mask figure A 4% rebound alone in the fourth quarter»»testifies Jordan Frarier, boss of Foncia Transaction. During this last quarter of 2024, sales even jumped by 20% in Ile-de-France,, “The region which had been struck first by the real estate crisis”Recalls Jordan Frarier. Who “Hope” So that Ile-de-France will lead the other regions in its recovery in the coming months. The manager thus tables a 5% increase in real estate sales in France in 2025, Between 820,000 and 850,000 units For the entire market, Foncia and its competitors included.

In 2025, an evolution of prices similar to that of 2023

A recovery which however implies “of Do not see interest rates increase again“, warns the manager. This does not seem to be won if the rate of the 10 -year OAT (assimilable bond of the Treasury), which international investors demand to lend France in the financial markets, flashes again, as at the very beginning of the year. The problem is that the prospect of a finance bill for 2025 adopted this week using article 49.3 of the Constitution, with a possible censorship of the government by parliament, risk would increase the ‘Political instability in France. “”The government should hold at least until Julybefore a new dissolution of the National Assembly ”sighs Maël Bernier.

To everything wrong being good, “If credit rates stabilize or increase slightly, the prices of old real estate will continue to Lower a little more in 2025, from 1% to 2%, as in 2023 ”Prognostic Jordan Frarier. For the simple reason that potential buyers will try to negotiate price reductions from sellers in order to counterbalance the increase in their credit. In 2024, selling prices at Foncia flexed 4% on average, sellers having finally understood, after two years of real estate crisis, that they could no longer demand buyers the same rates as when the credit rates were at 1%. But this drop in prices, coupled with that of mortgage rates, revived real estate purchases to the point that the decrease in prices slowed down in the last quarter of 2024 (-1.4%). Thus, at the beginning of January, when the banks still frankly dropped their credit rates, the network of CENTURY 21 real estate agencies did not exclude a 2% to 3% increase in selling prices this year.