Optimism is a virtue. There is no question of denying it here, especially in these times. As our country and our world have entered a period of disorder of which we do not see the end, what more powerful spring for households and businesses than this “want to want», to paraphrase Johnny, whom we will always miss… perhaps first of all because he embodied a wonderful energy? Colin Powell, great American general, said that “perpetual optimism is a force multiplier“. Conversely, Georges Bernanos warns us: “Optimism is a false hope for the use of cowards and imbeciles.»
The start of the year is conducive to predictions, often solicited by the press, regarding the real estate market. The exercise is obviously valuable for individuals, who are wondering whether 2026 will be the favorable year for carrying out an acquisition or sale project, and for professional players in the sector, who must manage their business and plan. For several weeks, the optimistic comments are multiplying. Should we not qualify them, knowing that this choice will not lead… to pessimism, but to the adjustment of individual and collective strategies? Analysis.
More than 950,000 transactions coming in 2026?
What are the experts who speak enthusiastically based on? First on the most recent trends: in 2025, the real estate market has regained strength, notaries attest to an increase of around 8% of the number of transactions. The production of credits has of course itself recovered from month to month, starting from the low point of the period of rate inflation: 6.9 billion production in March 2024 against almost 14 during each of the last three months of last year. If we extend these curves, we are justified in predicting 950,000 to 970,000 transactions in 2026.
Of course, we also anticipate a maintenance of the credit conditions which were practiced in the last quarter of 2025, and prices at the same level: after downward corrections in almost all metropolises… and a slight rise as soon as interest rates have significantly declined, to establish themselves a little above 3%.
Growing sales or catch-up effect
However, mortgages are numerous and many observers seem to minimize them. Identifying them does not amount to predicting a dark year, but leads to providing weapons and preparing solutions adapted to the circumstances. First, we do not emphasize that the 2025 sales volumes were partly due to a catch-up effect compared to 2024, which had recorded only 750,000 transactions. We can estimate that the market is breathing well around 900,000 operations, and better still at 1 million. Clearly, household needs are adequately met at these levels: residential real estate is a market of needs, with which we cannot compromise, the main causes of sales and purchases being major life events.
Thus, births and deaths, formation or separation of couples, and mobility for training and employment explain 70% of transactions, 20% relating to investment And 10% of the acquisition of second homes. On the other hand, we can postpone, for example by a year, these fundamental acts responding to life situations. In 2025, the market benefited from postponements decided in 2024, and this phenomenon will not play out in 2026.
The rebound in interest rates continues
THE interest rate also rose slightly, by around 5 to 15 basis points. Above all, what reaction will the financial markets have to our inability to vote on a budget for the nation? We cannot exclude a slight additional increase. Above all, are we certain that the French will consider it appropriate to commit for 20 or 25 years when visibility within their country is constantly reduced, when strikes and demonstrations complicate their daily lives and attest to the disarray of vital social bodies, farmers or doctors?
We are starting to talk again about dissolving the National Assembly, to the point that the Prime Minister asked the Minister of the Interior to plan a coupling of municipal elections and legislative elections… The hypothesis is taken seriously. In fact, we say that our political instability will only end with the election of a new President of the Republic. The geopolitical unrest is no less heavy to bear, with the fear that our troops will be engaged in nearby theaters of operation, or even that our country itself will be targeted. These fears are partly rational and partly irrational, but they are paralyzing. One theory nonetheless: the French increasingly consider their destiny independent of national and world politics. Yes and no. They are aware that politics has a great influence on reality, particularly economic ones.
THE business failures are clearly increasing and they affect employment, the strength of which has declined, including for young graduates, those who are largely first-time buyers. Major brands are implementing job protection plans (PSE) which are accompanied by large-scale layoffs. Finally, prices are distributed upwards, certainly reduced, but real in several territories. The change in the calculation of the DPE (energy performance diagnosis), which saves a letter for the approximately 7 million properties heated with electricity, risks encouraging this upward trend. The president of Century 21 France also lucidly admitted that volumes would depend on the ability of real estate agents to contain these increases so that the housing purchasing power of households is not degraded to the point of compromising the market. Regarding the impact of the DPE revised and corrected since January 1, it is particularly important that transferring owners do not forget that the issue of reducing bills, most often high in the case of electric heating, remains essential… Clearly, poorly insulated housing will see its value affected by this defect… which the DPE reveals: it indicates consumption and not only greenhouse gas emissions.
In short, if reasons for optimism are there, inverse causes cannot be denied. How to react to it? In various ways. Yes, prices must remain reasonable, and probably even correct further downwards. Let buyers understand that the time for negotiation has come and that sellers, in the current economic and social climate, do not lose common sense. In this regard, a slight appreciation of rates would ultimately be beneficial… if it were digestible. The reflex to use brokers, and for transaction professionals to form solid partnerships, must become widespread, to maintain credit conditions such as to authorize the projects of a majority of home buyers.
And then there is what we have no control over, politics and the uncertainties it brings. Tenants must be reminded that in the event of a life accident, starting with unemployment, property protects much better than the status of tenants. In the event of difficulty paying the rent, you are an occupant without title, while a banker will be ready for a moratorium, the payment of a monthly credit bill and all solutions before entering into legal litigation. In these troubled times, Accession is also a process of forced savings which protects against an uncertain future and hedonistic cicada behavior.
Ownership even has another virtue: it gives you the well-founded feeling that you write your story over time and that you preempt your own life. In this regard, it makes you… optimistic. She thumbs her nose at the circumstances. The proportion of French people for whom this advantage will outweigh the current obstacles is not easy to determine… between optimism and realism.
