Rental investment: a much higher cost than planned for the future status of the private lessor?

Excluded capital

According to a study carried out by Asterès, published exclusively by capital, the cost of the future tax status of the private lessor could prove to be much more expensive than provided by the parliamentary report submitted to the Minister of Housing. The study was commissioned by a collective of furnished rental specialists, disadvantaged by this reform project.

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If you buy an apartment or a house from December 1, 2025, to rent it naked and for a long time, you will have a Sacred tax advantage Provided that the status of the private lessor between well in force in 2026. Each year, from next year and for 20 years, you can indeed deduce from your rental income a damping equal to 5% of the value of the property Purchased if it is new, or 4% if it is old and you have renovated it considerably.

The Minister of Housing does not spare her efforts to convince her colleagues from the government, notably Eric Lombard (Economy) and Amélie de Montchalin (public accounts), to include in the finance bill for 2026 this famous tax status of the private lessor, claimed by the associations of owners for ten years. For Take the assent of Bercy, In search of 40 billion euros in savings, Valérie Létard has a mass argument: the gain of this status of the private lessor for public finances is estimated by the Daubresse-Cosson parliamentary mission to 500 million euros in 2026, to 1.1 billion in 2027, then to 1.9 billion euros per year until 2036.

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Contested housing construction forecasts

Published this Tuesday, July 8, by Asterès, on behalf of the collective of the accountants of the furnished rental (CECLM), another report is less enthusiastic. It must be said that, if the status of the private lessor is born, the long -term furnished rental will lose a good part of its advantage over bare rental since it already benefits from this damping mechanism. According to the first scenario scaffolded by Asterès, the implementation of the status of the private lessor would result in a negative gap between revenue and expenses Tax of -148 million euros in 2026, -297 million in 2027, -445 million in 2028 then of -594 million in 2029. In its second scenario, this measure would however be beneficial for public finances, but up to only 65 million euros in 2026, 395 million in 2027, 676 million in 2028 and 909 million in 2029.

Why such a difference with the forecasts of the report by Senator Marc-Philippe Daubresse and the deputy Mickaël Cosson? Both believe that the tax cost of depreciation, for the State, will be easily compensated by VAT and notary fees received by the same state on sales of new and old housing, sales which should be boosted by the status of the private lessor. But “The underlying of these projections (rebound in sales) are not explained. The hypothesis of the construction of 85,000 dwellings per year is not supported by solid arguments»»objects Asterès.

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Estimates with the assistance of 4 general inspectors

The cabinet also notes that the Daubresse-Cosson report “Seems to consider that investors only benefit from damping for a year after their acquisition,” while they are supposed to take advantage of it for 20 years. Hence a “Underestimation of the cost of the measure”. Asterès does not agree either with the cost of this measure by investorthat it figures at 3,300 euros on average per year, against only 2,700 euros in the Daubresse-Cosson report.

Contacted by CapitalMarc-Philippe Daubresse does not wish “Express more on the subject”. Ditto for the Ministry of Housing. But, according to a source close to the file, “All calculations and estimates of the Daubresse-Cosson report were made with the assistance of four general inspectors,, including one from Bercy “. And “This type of estimates of future housing constructions, Marc-Philippe Daubresse did it in 2005 as part of the Borloo plan, when he was Secretary of State for Housing, then in 2008, working on theScellier damping!»»recalls the same source. Another source aims to be more philosopher, believing that the CECLM “Is in his role and that his second scenario is still positive for public finances …”