Is rental investment regaining its attractiveness? After two years marked by soaring interest rates and a clear slowdown in transactions, financing conditions have clearly improved. According to the Banque de France, the average rate for new real estate loans (excluding renegotiations) has stabilized at 3.22% in April 2026compared to 3.59% at the peak of the increase in January 2024. At the same time, the monthly production of housing loans amounts to 12 billion eurosconfirming the gradual return of borrowers to the market.
This context could encourage individuals to return to the market. However, many prefer to wait. The reason? The accumulation of reforms which affect the profitability of real estate investments. With the progressive ban on renting thermal strainers, the developments of MaPrimeRénov’ and the future of rent control, many people are struggling to plan ahead. The arbitrations expected in the fall on this latter system therefore constitute a particularly anticipated event. Should you buy before these announcements or is it better to wait? For Guillaume Martinaud, president of Orpi, the first cooperative network of real estate agencies in France, the answer deserves to be nuanced.
Rent control: why the fall decisions are awaited
Rent control is based on article 140 of the ELAN law of November 23, 2018. This text reintroduced, on an experimental basis, a cap on rents in certain municipalities located in tense areas. Concretely, the prefect sets each year a reference rentA increased reference rent (+20%)which constitutes the applicable ceiling, as well as a reduced reference rent (-30%). When signing a lease or renewing it, the owner cannot exceed this ceiling, except when additional rent is justified by exceptional characteristics of the accommodation.
Initially planned for five years, this experiment was extended until November 23, 2026 by the 3DS law of February 21, 2022. Today, around fifteen communities apply this system, including Paris, Lille, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Montpellier, Bordeaux, Grenoble and several intermunicipalities in Seine-Saint-Denis.
The executive must now decide its future. The arbitrations expected in the fall will have to say whether the system is extended, perpetuated or adapted. A timetable which raises many questions among investors, even if rent control is not, according to professionals, the main blocking factor.
Guillaume Martinaud, computer president: “The real subject is the instability of the rules”
According to Guillaume Martinaud, the future of rent control is not the main source of concern for investors. For the president of Orpi, the lack of regulatory visibility today weighs much more heavily on purchasing decisions. “ Investors are cautious. They would like to buy because we can clearly see that there is strong rental demand. All our agencies are bombarded with rental candidates, we cannot supply them. But once you buy, tax policy changes all the time. There is no long-term visibility”he summarizes.
According to him, the accumulation of reforms ends up discouraging individuals. “ The real subject is not rent control. It’s the instability of the rules. Investors need to know where they are going. Today, we are changing tax systems, MaPrimeRénov’ is constantly evolving, standards follow one another… It is this lack of visibility that blocks investment decisions. »
However, Guillaume Martinaud recalls that the market fundamentals remain solid. “We have dozens of candidates for a single accommodation. Rental supply is insufficient almost everywhere. The needs are considerable. » According to him, this tension should logically support rental investment, provided that the public authorities provide more stability to landlords.
Why Orpi no longer systematically calls for the abolition of rent controls
Long very critical of the system, the Orpi network today adopts a more nuanced position. “We ourselves, at Orpi, are no longer in a Manichean vision of rent control. To say that it should be removed everywhere would be a mistake. It all depends on the territories”explains Guillaume Martinaud. According to him, certain metropolises are experiencing such tension that the mechanism can meet an objective of general interest. On the other hand, its extension to less tense markets seems much more questionable: “We cannot apply the same recipes everywhere. Real estate markets vary greatly from city to city. Local realities must be taken into account rather than imposing a uniform rule. »
The president of Orpi also recalls that capping rents does not prevent investors from carrying out a profitable project. “When you invest in real estate, you don’t just earn from the rent. There is also the valorization of heritage over time. You have to think over several years, not just on immediate returns. »
On the other hand, he recognizes that some owners are already seeking to circumvent the constraints imposed in the municipalities concerned. “We actually observe investors who favor furnished rentalcivil leases or seasonal rentals when possible. They are looking for more flexibility in the management of their property. » For Guillaume Martinaud, this development is not necessarily desirable. “If the rules become too restrictive, some housing may fall out of the traditional rental market. This would not be in the interest of either owners or tenants. »
Should you buy before the fall announcements? “Don’t be paralyzed by reforms”
So, should we move forward with our investment project before the government decides on the future of rent control? For Guillaume Martinaud, it would be counterproductive to suspend his decision on a reform whose contours still remain uncertain. “If you wait until all the conditions are met, you will never buy. There will always be a tax reform, a new regulation or a change in system. Real estate is a investment long term. We must think over ten, fifteen or twenty years, not on the announcements of the coming months. »
The president of Orpi also recalls that market fundamentals remain favorable to lessors. Rental demand remains strong, while construction of new housing remains historically low. According to the Ministry of Ecological Transition, construction starts fell further in 2025contributing to accentuate the imbalance between supply and demand. “Today, the real issue is the lack of housing. If we want to house the French, we must make individuals want to invest again. They represent an essential part of the private rental stock” concludes Guillaume Martinaud.
